Tarek Mansour: evaluation

17 Mar 2026 Cheeky Pint Creating prediction markets (and suing the CFTC) with Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara

“High odds don't always correlate to like a good outcome. So you saw Mamdani when his odds were 94% on Kalshi, the thing that he was mentioning pretty consistently, and I think there was a little bit of worry there, it's like you've got to show up.”

— Tarek Mansour

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Everything needed to verify it.

Speaker: Tarek Mansour
Attribution: Verified speaker
Claim type: evaluation
Recorded: 17 Mar 2026
Publisher: Cheeky Pint
Episode: Creating prediction markets (and suing the CFTC) with Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara

Transcript context

…Prediction markets are a big deal. It's ok to say they'll change things a little bit. High odds don't always correlate to like a good outcome. So you saw Mamdani when his odds were 94% on Kalshi, the thing that he was mentioning pretty consistently, and I think there was a little bit of worry there, it's like you've got to show up. Because if you're very high odds, that could also lead people to be like, "Ok, this isn't it." So it's not as clear. And I don't think this changes things more than polls changes. Does that make sense? So the response is more like in a vacuum. If you had nothing else If you didn't have social media, if you didn't have news, if you didn't have any of that, yes. But because we have all these other things and you add prediction market to it, like the impact model... But I want to make one point that I think is actually very interesting, and we're seeing this often. We'll be the judge of that.…

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