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6 transcript-backed records
01 / evaluation
“We think that would be a bad outcome for all the reasons, because there's a lot of upside to having liquid markets and a variety of different things.”
02 / evaluation
“You cannot find like a clearly defined demographic who they are. And I think that the thing where we got to now, and that took a very long time and you had to incentivize, is we have the community, a strong community of superforecasters that are on Kalshi that can help price these things extremely effectively and fast.”
03 / evaluation
“High odds don't always correlate to like a good outcome. So you saw Mamdani when his odds were 94% on Kalshi, the thing that he was mentioning pretty consistently, and I think there was a little bit of worry there, it's like you've got to show up.”
04 / evaluation
“I think that maybe the simple frame for this is you are increasing market efficiency for all these questions.”
05 / evaluation
“It's like, are we feeling too certain about this person? And I think that depolarizes things because the dimension is not, we're not one-dimensional anymore, which is like Republican, Democrat.”
06 / evaluation
“Because at least I believe, but you don't have to trust me, maybe you should trust markets, that this sort of analysis around DoorDash was actually quite poor.”