book / built
The Algebraic Mind
“I see a set of problems that a cognitive creature must solve, many of which I wrote in my 2,001 book, The Algebraic Mind.”
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Published podcast speaker
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book / built
“I see a set of problems that a cognitive creature must solve, many of which I wrote in my 2,001 book, The Algebraic Mind.”
book / built
“And it was in a book that I wrote called The Future of the Brain, which I guess we wrote in 02/2015.”
Claim ledger
39 transcript-backed records
01 / recommendation
“I see a set of problems that a cognitive creature must solve, many of which I wrote in my 2,001 book, The Algebraic Mind.”
02 / recommendation
“And it was in a book that I wrote called The Future of the Brain, which I guess we wrote in 02/2015.”
03 / belief
“Think that's exactly what people like Sam and Dario are now hinting that they're gonna be able to do soon. I'm not really buying those claims, but I think that's what they wanna do now.”
04 / belief
“I hadn't played this variation either before, but it was obvious what to do. So it failed to identify what 3 in a row was, which I would say goes to a conceptual weakness like you should have had enough data to understand what 3 in a row was.”
05 / commitment
“You suggested 1 red line, there are others. So we could decide as a society there are certain red lines, maybe recursive self improvement might be a reasonable 1 to consider, that we could say we won't cross any of the red lines.”
06 / belief
“I think your forecasts don't make a lot of contact with the kind of stuff that the 2 of us just talked about.”
07 / commitment
“I think that we will need some Einstein level innovations in order to get to AGI and certainly to get to ASI.”
08 / belief
“I agree. So, Amy, we can agree that, like, voluntary self regulation is probably not enough to get to that point.”
09 / belief
“Read I think more people probably read the, darker scenario than the positive scenario.”
10 / belief
“I mean, here's way to put it, is the AGI that I think we're afraid might be unconstrained or whatever, there really shouldn't be a lot of edge cases like that.”
11 / belief
“I think we are completely agreed that we're not doing a great job on the alignment problem and that we need to do much better and that there's a temporal dimension to that as you were just saying, which is like, you know, it's not great for humanity if we solve that problem in 200 years and we we have AGI or ASI, you know, in the next decade or 2.”
12 / belief
“Was going say the last thing, which is I first noted the problem with chess I think 2 years ago, the illegal move problem.”
13 / belief
“There's some differentiation in how people do their RL and what their data sets are, but I think there's not so much value in transparency until somebody has something that really is unique that they think other people aren't going to just reconstruct very rapidly.”
14 / uncertainty
“The coding tasks, I'm very concerned from a scientific perspective that we don't know how much data contamination there is.”
15 / belief
“I I think that that requires an understanding of the problem, what humans want solved by the problem.”
16 / belief
“I I think distribute I'll put it this way. There'll be many, many examples I can come up with distribution shift.”
17 / uncertainty
“I was told, I don't know if it's true, that that people in OpenAI actually look on social media for example, including mine, and, you know, people patch them up.”
18 / belief
“I know they've been trained on Wikipedia. They've probably read like Bobby Fischer played chess, which is how I learned to play chess.”
19 / commitment
“I find it very hard to know when there will be a state change. But I think in 02/1935, we will look at LLMs and be like, nice try.”
20 / commitment
“I think by the end of the year, we will already be less far ahead on agents, as you hypothesized there.”
21 / belief
“If you can have the neural networks reliably call the tools that they want or that they should be calling relative to the problem, I should say, then you're golden. I think empirically it is a bit hard to get the tools to work reliably.”
22 / belief
“I mean, I think someone could come up with a scheme to get LLMs to to play chess without making illegal moves by calling a tool.”
23 / belief
“I think the 3 of us are maybe not known for agreeing on everything, but we actually have a lot of shared values around that, and I'm looking forward to the conversation.”
24 / belief
“I think that the level of intelligence that you attribute to the machines towards the end of the essay I remember some of that actually happens after the year 2027.”
25 / belief
“You know? But That's part of my darkness about it is I think there's too much alchemy and not enough principles.”
26 / belief
“Like in the very fastest case, it'd be 2,030. It would require solving multiple problems that I think we're just not positioned quite yet.”
27 / belief
“You can argue about that and and, you know, I I would say that like the weakest AGI would be it's as good as Joe Sixpack who's really not very good at reasoning, has is full of confirmation bias, has not gone to graduate school, doesn't have, you know, critical reasoning.”
28 / belief
“Like I believe in my political party and so when my political party does dumb thing then I go and try to, you know, come up with a rationale for it.”
29 / belief
“I think the notion of a durable advantage in LLMs, if that's what the technology is, is a myth.”
30 / commitment
“I am sure that I will be able to come up with variations on chess, that are not orthodox variations, but maybe there's some already known.”
31 / commitment
“I didn't see it myself, that at some point he was saying, we won't build frontier models because of these risks.”
32 / belief
“I think if you rule out data contamination, the performance on problems that are new is not good.”
33 / prediction
“I mean, like, if you're worried about superintelligence, then you might think if we move even towards AGI, which presumably is closer in time, that that's a bad idea because we won't be able to stop the superintelligence.”
34 / evaluation
“We have slightly different ideas about world models. But he would say, I don't think we're close because we don't really have world models and neither of us I think are satisfied with the current thing that some people call reasoning but neither of us think is robust enough.”
35 / prediction
“I think we're making some bad assumptions, but it's hard to predict when people will move past an EDA fix, which is where I think we are now.”
36 / evaluation
“On Tower of Hanoi, Herb Simon solved it in 1957 with a classical technique that generalizes to arbitrary length whereas the LLMs do not generalize to arbitrary length and face problems. And so I could go through more but the gist of it is I don't see the qualitative problems that I think need to be solved.”
37 / prediction
“Then we have the whole I don't know if we have time to go into it, but maybe we will, maybe won't the mechanisms of open sourcing or at least open weight models, which means that essentially anybody can get in this game to some degree.”
38 / evaluation
“It works better for things like math where you can verify that the the augmented data are better. And so I think we're already running against that, kind of like bottleneck on 1 of the, let's say, raw resources that go in at least into the current approaches.”
39 / evaluation
“I take I take even, like, don't make illegal moves in chess to be a form of the alignment problem, like a very simple microcosm of the alignment problem, and they're still struggling with that.”