Evidence receipt / belief
Published · transcript-backedGary Marcus: belief
24 Jun 2025 Machine Learning Street Talk Three Red Lines We're About to Cross Toward AGI (Daniel Kokotajlo, Gary Marcus, Dan Hendrycks)
“Like in the very fastest case, it'd be 2,030. It would require solving multiple problems that I think we're just not positioned quite yet.”
Source trail
Everything needed to verify it.
- Speaker
- Gary Marcus
- Attribution
- Verified speaker
- Claim type
- belief
- Recorded
- 24 Jun 2025
- Publisher
- Machine Learning Street Talk
Transcript context
…So I would claim that timelines, there are many paths to it being shorter before 02/1930, for instance, but the picture that you point out of there are these various other cognitive abilities that are long unaddressed and this isn't a cherry picked distribution, this is actually what you would do if you're inspired by cognitive science or psychometrics. I think basically both positions are legitimate, but I think if you'd integrate them, there could be a bullish case that you'll be able to knock off some of this cognitive abilities by the end of the decade. It's not really It's funny you say it. I think that the absolute most bullish, if we want to use that word, case is 20 30. Like in the very fastest case, it'd be 2,030. It would require solving multiple problems that I think we're just not positioned quite yet. I don't think it's very likely, but I think that that's the maximum possible. I just can't get my mind around 20 27. It just does not seem plausible because of the number of problems. And I think also what you said is right. We want to integrate these 2 approaches to make the forecast. And nobody's really quite done that. Maybe that's an adversarialcollaborative collaboration that we could do. I haven't really seen something dig into that side of it, of sort of new discoveries. Maybe your gaps does it a little bit. So let's talk about the superhuman coder milestone and let's The what? The superhuman coder milestone, the automated encoding aspects, which is not all of AIR and D, but just part of it. I'm excited to try to drill down into that and for us to try to make bets or predictions of what the next few years are going to look like, basically. So from my perspective, it feels like you have often, over the last couple of years, been pointing to limitations of LLMs that were then, like, overcome in the next year or 2.…
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