Gary Marcus: commitment

Transcript context

…And you don't think we'll get it after automating AI R and D. We'll get it in a like humans will come up with the ideas that get us there. I mean, I guess it relates so for me, automating R and D, like there's a plausible version and a much more distal version. So the near term version is like a lot of people do a lot of experiments on LLMs. And I think you can automate a bunch of that. But having genuinely new ideas has not been the forte of this. Somebody just did a a paper I'll try to dig up the reference in which they looked at whether these systems develop new or are able to infer causal laws. And they're not that good at it. Like, don't expect that an LLM is going to do Einstein level, look at a problem, come up with a completely different solution anytime soon. All the solutions they have seem to me to be kind of inside the box. And I think that getting to AGI is going to require outside the box solutions. They might automate the stuff inside the box. And inside the box, they may even do better than people like the famous was it Move 37 or web or 1 of the Go championships? It's kind of inside the box. It was still within the realm of things that you know, it's still within Go. You know, it's not outside the box the way that thinking about relativity. Like, there's a whole different way to think about physics than we thought before. I think that we will need some Einstein level innovations in order to get to AGI and certainly to get to ASI. And I don't expect that at least automating the current machines will do that. Okay. When we do get to AGI, how fast do you think the takeoff will be?…

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