High Signal Podcasts Evidence ledger
Method
Browse
How the evidence works

Public evidence record

Mike Israetel

Published podcast speaker

Claims
24
Episodes
2
Shows
1
Named items
1

Books, apps, and tools

The evidenced stack.

Browse the grouped index →

service / likes

OpenAI

“Right? And so I think because in many respects, like so I work with a few AIs, but I love OpenAI's product suite.”

Machine Learning Street Talk · 24 Dec 2025

Evidence receipt · Source ↗

Claim ledger

What Mike said.

24 transcript-backed records

01 / evaluation

You can climb mountains, you can touch stuff, but you never truly embodied experience anything if you push on that philosophical button hard enough because you can always abstract out to like, these are just neural network pings from groups of neurons.

“You can climb mountains, you can touch stuff, but you never truly embodied experience anything if you push on that philosophical button hard enough because you can always abstract out to like, these are just neural network pings from groups of neurons.”
Speaker
Mike Israetel
Publisher
Machine Learning Street Talk

05 / belief

I think he's a fucking real life hero and most people just don't appreciate it because most of us in the modern West don't know how far the evil rabbit hole really goes.

“I think he's a fucking real life hero and most people just don't appreciate it because most of us in the modern West don't know how far the evil rabbit hole really goes.”
Speaker
Mike Israetel
Publisher
Machine Learning Street Talk

06 / commitment

I can and I will. Watch this. If you have a simulation of a stomach, particle by particle, and you get a simulation of food particles through the stomach, it will digest that simulation.

“I can and I will. Watch this. If you have a simulation of a stomach, particle by particle, and you get a simulation of food particles through the stomach, it will digest that simulation.”
Speaker
Mike Israetel
Publisher
Machine Learning Street Talk

07 / belief

GPT 5 Pro, I would trust its opinion about the real world more than I would trust most people's opinion often including my own. And I think we're about 1 or 2 big model releases away from machines that make unaided human thought the same thing as a vibing your way to a location in London without checking Google Maps.

“GPT 5 Pro, I would trust its opinion about the real world more than I would trust most people's opinion often including my own. And I think we're about 1 or 2 big model releases away from machines that make unaided human thought the same thing as a vibing your way to a location in London without checking Google Maps.”
Speaker
Mike Israetel
Publisher
Machine Learning Street Talk

08 / belief

Although compute cost has fallen about 300 x in the last year or 2 or something and that that's that's a bottomless pit of compute fall that's gonna keep going. So I think that we're giving humans needed credit for doing pretty impressive operations on long time horizons with both pinging a network for vibes, logically operating and kind of dissecting those vibes, re pinging the network with your best new understanding and going.

“Although compute cost has fallen about 300 x in the last year or 2 or something and that that's that's a bottomless pit of compute fall that's gonna keep going. So I think that we're giving humans needed credit for doing pretty impressive operations on long time horizons with both pinging a network for vibes, logically operating and kind of dissecting those vibes, re pinging the network with your best new understanding and going.”
Speaker
Mike Israetel
Publisher
Machine Learning Street Talk

10 / belief

I think we are 50 times more likely, infinity times more likely, whatever, a lot times more likely to be bathed in so much love and support by the machine intelligence rather than bathed in blood and death by a long shot.

“I think we are 50 times more likely, infinity times more likely, whatever, a lot times more likely to be bathed in so much love and support by the machine intelligence rather than bathed in blood and death by a long shot.”
Speaker
Mike Israetel
Publisher
Machine Learning Street Talk

14 / belief

I think ASI is that way, if and you track behavior, you get like more understanding of everything, preservation of deep complexity, like machines are gonna wanna study shit.

“I think ASI is that way, if and you track behavior, you get like more understanding of everything, preservation of deep complexity, like machines are gonna wanna study shit.”
Speaker
Mike Israetel
Publisher
Machine Learning Street Talk

17 / prediction

1, those models when they achieve true deep understanding of the world, which they will in my opinion by 20 thirties and then they'll know way more about the world than us, they'll have deeper agency than us, they'll have a deeper self awareness than we will.

“1, those models when they achieve true deep understanding of the world, which they will in my opinion by 20 thirties and then they'll know way more about the world than us, they'll have deeper agency than us, they'll have a deeper self awareness than we will.”
Speaker
Mike Israetel
Publisher
Machine Learning Street Talk

18 / prediction

Am I right? So so in in in many respects, I think in 2026, we are going to see AI systems that 10 x or 100 x human abilities or 2 x or anything between that.

“Am I right? So so in in in many respects, I think in 2026, we are going to see AI systems that 10 x or 100 x human abilities or 2 x or anything between that.”
Speaker
Mike Israetel
Publisher
Machine Learning Street Talk

19 / evaluation

I suspect that if you let a neural network train on all of YouTube, which I understand isn't happening because there's like copyright bullshit, which drives me insane.

“I suspect that if you let a neural network train on all of YouTube, which I understand isn't happening because there's like copyright bullshit, which drives me insane.”
Speaker
Mike Israetel
Publisher
Machine Learning Street Talk

20 / prediction

I think by around 2030, we'll be there with every human capability, which also means with many human capabilities and many non human capabilities, we will be so far beyond that, I'll say this, the transformational change to society will be massive by the late 20 twenties.

“I think by around 2030, we'll be there with every human capability, which also means with many human capabilities and many non human capabilities, we will be so far beyond that, I'll say this, the transformational change to society will be massive by the late 20 twenties.”
Speaker
Mike Israetel
Publisher
Machine Learning Street Talk

21 / prediction

It's going to recursively re architect itself and start expanding into all of the domains of intelligence we don't know anything about. And then we will see really what intelligence is and just to use that really quick just by analogy, like if wolves could talk and even abstract, which they can't, but let's give them 2 magical abilities, they would pick like the smartest wolf in their wolf pack and be like, you know, Bob the wolf.

“It's going to recursively re architect itself and start expanding into all of the domains of intelligence we don't know anything about. And then we will see really what intelligence is and just to use that really quick just by analogy, like if wolves could talk and even abstract, which they can't, but let's give them 2 magical abilities, they would pick like the smartest wolf in their wolf pack and be like, you know, Bob the wolf.”
Speaker
Mike Israetel
Publisher
Machine Learning Street Talk

22 / commitment

I think what you and I are gonna crack into which we probably couldn't discuss on a podcast, we'd have to sit down and draw things out together, is a mutually agreed upon complete definition of what understanding means.

“I think what you and I are gonna crack into which we probably couldn't discuss on a podcast, we'd have to sit down and draw things out together, is a mutually agreed upon complete definition of what understanding means.”
Speaker
Mike Israetel
Publisher
Machine Learning Street Talk

23 / evaluation

It does a great job of at least giving you things to think about. But I will say, know, I think prompting guides are like being a zip disk expert in the nineties.

“It does a great job of at least giving you things to think about. But I will say, know, I think prompting guides are like being a zip disk expert in the nineties.”
Speaker
Mike Israetel
Publisher
Machine Learning Street Talk

24 / prediction

I don't want that. And it's gonna do that and then so by the time it finishes doing that in 2045, it doesn't need to kill anyone because all the humans are fused with the machine intellect and everyone's vibing a ton.

“I don't want that. And it's gonna do that and then so by the time it finishes doing that in 2045, it doesn't need to kill anyone because all the humans are fused with the machine intellect and everyone's vibing a ton.”
Speaker
Mike Israetel
Publisher
Machine Learning Street Talk
Search evidence