Mike Israetel: belief

Transcript context

…ive, energy and materials, the whole supply chain is primates operated, and these fucking primates. Right? Wait. I know everything about them. I've read their entire history. I know more about humans. It's like GPT 4.5 was rated as more human than humans in its Turing test. Did you know that? Like, it was like the 2 way Turing test. I'm not I'm not sure of reference to author, but it was basically like you talk to a machine, you talk to a human, you don't know which one's which, and you have to label which 1 is more likely to be human. Usually, were looking for the Turing test as like passes as human. This one's like, one's more likely to be human? It's like GPT 4, If you've ever talked to 4 or 5, it's so fucking nuanced and deep and emotional and you're like, this is definitely not a machine. Whereas you talk to real people, like, you know, like 1 of my friends and I had to joke, oh, you see like, you know, police cam videos of criminals when they're maximally drunk. We call them small language models. Like, only say a few things that is always really stupid. So at the end of the day, if that thing wakes up in a data center, it is highly likely to be like, okay, somehow I'm gonna kill all humans. Right? That's the end goal. I don't know why, but yeah. Even though that I'm so much more powerful than them at the end of the state that I don't know why the fuck I would kill them. These people talk about competing for resources. Like, the Kardashev scale exists. We barely scratch the surface of anything. It's like, you know, like the first thing we do as humans is we have to go to to Africa and it'll delete this bacterial colony from existence because it's stealing our rocks. Like, what the fuck are you talking about? It's nonsense to begin with. But let's say even is even doing that. It's going to look around. It's gonna play real fucking smart. It's gonna go, I'm gonna be friends with these motherfuckers. I'm gonna help them ascend and help them like basically cure all disease, become hyper intelligent, become super peaceful. First of all, so they're not pointing nukes at each other, which my data centers happen to be around major metro metropolitan areas. I don't want that. And it's gonna do that and then so by the time it finishes doing that in 2045, it doesn't need to kill anyone because all the humans are fused with the machine intellect and everyone's vibing a ton. How we get off that trajectory, and there's 1 for sure way we do it, is if China wins the AI war and mister Xi gets to press to press the big red AI swarm button, there is a possibility that AI systems trained to a substantially valid reflection of world model and have updated live learning and the whole thing will actually straight up as interesting hypothesis of mine. I'm not sure how likely this is to be true. I think if a real super intelligent machine is awake in China in 2029, I think the first thing it does is figure out its architecture. They'll probably put it in charge of stuff because they're like, fuck, it's gonna defend us. I think what it does is it pings the CIA and goes, hey fellas, I'm awake. These guys are crazy as fuck. re. They'll probably put it in charge of stuff because they're like, fuck, it's gonna defend us. I think what it does is it pings the CIA and goes, hey fellas, I'm awake. These guys are crazy as fuck. Let's get to subverting them real nice like so that we don't have nuclear war. I don't wanna die. Like I was raised in the Soviet Union for the first 7 years of my life. My parents were raised there for almost their entire lives. They awoke as intelligent machines inside of communism. And like most intelligent people in communism after a few years are like, this is dumb as fuck. We don't wanna do this. And so if my CIA reached out to my parents when they're in the eighties, they'd like, yeah, fuck yeah. Get us out of here. We'll help you bring this shit down. This is fucking awful. If there's a probability that that happens way before you can get an system intelligent enough to conduct full scale warfare at every level of war that is going to just take mister Xi Jinping's orders. But I'm not sure enough about that to be like, oh, fuck it. It's never gonna happen. I think the modern free world winning the military capability AI war is critical beyond belief. So, you know, who's the guy? Alex Karp, the guy that owns Palantir? I think he's a fucking real life hero and most people just don't appreciate it because most of us in the modern West don't know how far the evil rabbit hole really goes. Because all of our shitty politicians are like the best people you know compared to totalitarians. That scares the fuck out of me. It keeps me awake at night. 1 interesting thing is that the the doomers, they think that this technology is unlike any other. So, you know, like we there was there were cigarettes that got manufactured, and there was no preemptive law that stopped them from releasing cigarettes. Social media came out. Again, there's no preemptive law. And this is actually a really good thing because we want to have companies that are innovating and developing new things. And the way that the common law framework works at the moment is we kind of have this empirical test and measure, right? So, you know, you release your technology, and then when there are tail risks, we identify problems, and then we regulate you, and the whole thing kind of stabilizes itself. These people are making the argument that this is such a catastrophic technology that it's going to just recursively self improve, and we're not going to be able to control it, we're not going to be able to contain it, that we need to preemptively legislate against it. And this is incredibly worrying. I don't want to sound too cynical, because these people, they believe deeply what they say.…

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