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Daniel Kokotajlo

Published podcast speaker

Claims
30
Episodes
2
Shows
2
Named items
0

Claim ledger

What Daniel said.

30 transcript-backed records

01 / disagreement

I mean, also just, for the record, I disagree with you, I think that progress is being made in this sort of hard to measure dimension that you're pointing to.

“I mean, also just, for the record, I disagree with you, I think that progress is being made in this sort of hard to measure dimension that you're pointing to.”
Publisher
Machine Learning Street Talk

03 / belief

Think that I mean, there's probably some of that there to some extent, for sure. But at least my experience at OpenAI was that there was more pressure to not talk about the risks in public and to downplay that sort of thing.

“Think that I mean, there's probably some of that there to some extent, for sure. But at least my experience at OpenAI was that there was more pressure to not talk about the risks in public and to downplay that sort of thing.”
Publisher
Machine Learning Street Talk

05 / commitment

I think that the type of thing that I'm probably going to end up advocating for is going to be more of a rather than, like, here's a line that we're all not going to cross, something more like, we are going to gradually develop AIs with these capabilities, but we're going to do it in a way that's, like, mutually transparent to each other and that proceeds sort of slowly and cautiously where we all debate whether it's safe to go to the next level.

“I think that the type of thing that I'm probably going to end up advocating for is going to be more of a rather than, like, here's a line that we're all not going to cross, something more like, we are going to gradually develop AIs with these capabilities, but we're going to do it in a way that's, like, mutually transparent to each other and that proceeds sort of slowly and cautiously where we all debate whether it's safe to go to the next level.”
Publisher
Machine Learning Street Talk

06 / belief

I mean, would say, in some sense, arguably, we're already seeing a move away from LLMs with things like these so called reasoning agents that have access to tools and can write code and so forth. So there's going to be this continuous shift towards, I would say, rather than, like, discrete paradigm shifts, it'll be more like a continuous paradigm shift.

“I mean, would say, in some sense, arguably, we're already seeing a move away from LLMs with things like these so called reasoning agents that have access to tools and can write code and so forth. So there's going to be this continuous shift towards, I would say, rather than, like, discrete paradigm shifts, it'll be more like a continuous paradigm shift.”
Publisher
Machine Learning Street Talk

08 / uncertainty

Like they've done lots of And whereas 3, we don't know the details of three's training process, but it's possible that there was not a single playing of a game of chess at all in the training process for early.

“Like they've done lots of And whereas 3, we don't know the details of three's training process, but it's possible that there was not a single playing of a game of chess at all in the training process for early.”
Publisher
Machine Learning Street Talk

09 / belief

Don't know about the second 2 the other 2, but definitely the first 1. I think that if somehow we could coordinate on that, that'd be great.

“Don't know about the second 2 the other 2, but definitely the first 1. I think that if somehow we could coordinate on that, that'd be great.”
Publisher
Machine Learning Street Talk

10 / belief

Claude plus code interpreter and things like that. And I think that that system could solve tariff and things like that because Claude might be smart enough to look up the algorithm and then implement the algorithm and then do it.

“Claude plus code interpreter and things like that. And I think that that system could solve tariff and things like that because Claude might be smart enough to look up the algorithm and then implement the algorithm and then do it.”
Publisher
Machine Learning Street Talk

12 / belief

We're working on it. I agree with the problem you're pointing out. We currently have a project to make a good ending, so to speak, at a similar level of detail to what we already have.

“We're working on it. I agree with the problem you're pointing out. We currently have a project to make a good ending, so to speak, at a similar level of detail to what we already have.”
Publisher
Machine Learning Street Talk

14 / evaluation

The part that I think is is more robust and more worth using is this core idea that you can can think of this trade off between more time to come up with new ideas and do AI research and, more compute with which to do the AI research.

“The part that I think is is more robust and more worth using is this core idea that you can can think of this trade off between more time to come up with new ideas and do AI research and, more compute with which to do the AI research.”
Publisher
Machine Learning Street Talk

15 / uncertainty

We don’t know what actual goals will end up inside the AIs and what the sort of internal structure of that will be like, what goals will be instrumental versus terminal.

“We don’t know what actual goals will end up inside the AIs and what the sort of internal structure of that will be like, what goals will be instrumental versus terminal.”
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

20 / belief

If I could just double click on that; go back to 2015 and I think the way people typically thought, including myself, thought that we’d get to AGI would be kind of like the RL on video games thing that was happening.

“If I could just double click on that; go back to 2015 and I think the way people typically thought, including myself, thought that we’d get to AGI would be kind of like the RL on video games thing that was happening.”
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

21 / belief

I think that if you want a contrast, some people in the past have proposed much faster scenarios where they email some cloud lab and start building nanotech right away by just using their brains to figure out appropriate protein folding and stuff like that.

“I think that if you want a contrast, some people in the past have proposed much faster scenarios where they email some cloud lab and start building nanotech right away by just using their brains to figure out appropriate protein folding and stuff like that.”
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

23 / uncertainty

Yeah. And so, for example, I’m not a lawyer, I don’t know the details about how this would work out, but I have a sort of high-level strategic picture of the fight between the White House and the CEO.

“Yeah. And so, for example, I’m not a lawyer, I don’t know the details about how this would work out, but I have a sort of high-level strategic picture of the fight between the White House and the CEO.”
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

25 / belief

I think what you’re saying is maybe this whole process just goes off the rails due to lack of contact with ground truth outside in the actual world, outside the data centers.

“I think what you’re saying is maybe this whole process just goes off the rails due to lack of contact with ground truth outside in the actual world, outside the data centers.”
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

26 / belief

I think that if the government wades in and tries to make more specific regulations along the lines of what you mentioned, it’s very plausible that it’ll end up backfiring for reasons like what you mentioned.

“I think that if the government wades in and tries to make more specific regulations along the lines of what you mentioned, it’s very plausible that it’ll end up backfiring for reasons like what you mentioned.”
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

27 / belief

Even though they have less compute, even though they have less researchers, they’re able to do fewer experiments. So yeah, I think that there are tons of examples throughout history, including recent relevant AGI history, of things in the other way.

“Even though they have less compute, even though they have less researchers, they’re able to do fewer experiments. So yeah, I think that there are tons of examples throughout history, including recent relevant AGI history, of things in the other way.”
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

28 / evaluation

I’ll add some more things to that. So I think there’s a long and sordid history of people looking at some limitation of the current LLMs and then making grand claims about how the whole paradigm is doomed because they’ll never overcome this limitation.

“I’ll add some more things to that. So I think there’s a long and sordid history of people looking at some limitation of the current LLMs and then making grand claims about how the whole paradigm is doomed because they’ll never overcome this limitation.”
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

29 / prediction

I think that’s kind of analogous to the situation with the superintelligences where they have the high-level picture of, here’s how we’re going to improve in all these dimensions, we’re going to learn by doing, we’re going to get to this level of technology, et cetera.

“I think that’s kind of analogous to the situation with the superintelligences where they have the high-level picture of, here’s how we’re going to improve in all these dimensions, we’re going to learn by doing, we’re going to get to this level of technology, et cetera.”
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

30 / prediction

They might be able to get a lot of red tape waived and stuff like that. And so we made the guess that early in 2027, the company would basically be like, ‘We are going to deliberately wake up the president and scare the president with all of these demos of crazy stuff that could happen, and then use that to lobby the President to help us go faster and to cut red tape and to maybe slow down our competitors a little bit and so forth.

“They might be able to get a lot of red tape waived and stuff like that. And so we made the guess that early in 2027, the company would basically be like, ‘We are going to deliberately wake up the president and scare the president with all of these demos of crazy stuff that could happen, and then use that to lobby the President to help us go faster and to cut red tape and to maybe slow down our competitors a little bit and so forth.”
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast
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