Daniel Kokotajlo: belief

Transcript context

…So roughly parity is what I'm seeing, right? So there could be a different technology, you know, my personal favorite would be neurosymbolic AI, that somebody gets a durable evangel, maybe. But you know, it's going be espionage, people are going to share ideas or whatever. But if the paradigm stays roughly like it is, I don't see anybody getting a durable advantage. So that's part 1. Is do you agree, disagree with that? I think it depends on what you mean by paradigm. So I would say, like, LLMs are just a part of this or a subset of this overall, like, AI research. You know? They're not the only possible AI design. Definitely not. And progress is going to continue being made. I mean, would say, in some sense, arguably, we're already seeing a move away from LLMs with things like these so called reasoning agents that have access to tools and can write code and so forth. So there's going to be this continuous shift towards, I would say, rather than, like, discrete paradigm shifts, it'll be more like a continuous paradigm shift. And the the the AIs of 2027 are just gonna be, like, quite different from the AIs of 2023. You know? But taken as a whole, the AIs, I do think that The United States could potentially end up having a durable advantage over China. And 1 particular tech company within The United States could end up having a durable advantage. I see this as possible. I see that it's unlikely unless somebody approaches the problem in a pretty different way. Like you can imagine a neurosymbolic approach. It would be just so different from what anybody else has that I could see at least for a while an advantage. In the current way people are doing things, I don't even know what that would…

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