Evidence receipt / belief
Published · transcript-backedDaniel Kokotajlo: belief
3 Apr 2025 Dwarkesh Podcast AI 2027: month-by-month model of intelligence explosion — Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo
“I agree that there have been plenty of people who’ve been more bullish than me and have been already proven wrong, but they’re not me.”
Source trail
Everything needed to verify it.
- Speaker
- Daniel Kokotajlo
- Attribution
- Verified speaker
- Claim type
- belief
- Recorded
- 3 Apr 2025
- Publisher
- Dwarkesh Podcast
Transcript context
…I agree Robin Hanson in particular has been too pessimistic. But he’s a smart guy. So I think that the aggregate opinion has been underestimating the pace of both technical progress and deployment. I agree that there have been plenty of people who’ve been more bullish than me and have been already proven wrong, but they’re not me. Wait a second. We don’t have to guess about aggregate opinion, we can look at Metaculus. Metaculus, I think their timeline was like 2050 back in 2020. It gradually went down to like 2040 two or three years ago. Now it’s at 2030, so it’s barely ahead of us. Again, that may turn out to be wrong, but it does look like the Metaculans overall have, have been too pessimistic, thinking too long term rather than too optimistic. And I think that’s like the closest thing we have to a neutral aggregator where we’re not cherry picking things.…
Stored transcript either side of the excerpt. The highlighted words are the published quote; the surrounding text is unedited source, never generated.