Daniel Kokotajlo: belief

Transcript context

…too So with both of it, it's a resource thing. And I think it's less of a technical thing. The technical things can increase the capacity to deal with these problems or have more efficient solutions for some of these particular symptoms or these new failure modes that crop up. But I'm not expecting a total monolithic solution that a pause would necessarily give. I think you have to have the background context in both cases be that you're able to proceed with development under some risk tolerance that's much lower than what there is today. I agree, we're totally not on track to have figured out the alignment stuff in time. I can dedicate more on that, but I've talked a lot. So we should probably actually wrap up. So maybe some final words. I'll start with some final words. Maybe I'll make some very last words. I think we actually agree on a lot here. Our clearest disagreement is on forecasting. Even there, we're not probably as far apart as maybe people thought that we were. Right? So, you know, I I push all of my probability mass 5 years out and have, you know, basically none before. And you've got some at 3 years out or 2 years out that I don't. We both have some out at 2,045. I have some even past then and you may or may not. We have slightly different methodologies that we have talked about. You were surprisingly coming to my aid, which I loved. Happy moment for me. But we're not hugely apart. And I think we've acknowledged the value in some of the forecasting techniques that the other has used even if we don't. So we're not hugely apart there. I think we are completely agreed that we're not doing a great job on the alignment problem and that we need to do much better and that there's a temporal dimension to that as you were just saying, which is like, you know, it's not great for humanity if we solve that problem in 200 years and we we have AGI or ASI, you know, in the next decade or 2. And I think we agree also that the current companies are not entirely trustworthy. Those are some of the things that we agree or don't disagree so much on. Like, in the broader picture, we're remarkably aligned.…

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