Conversations with Tyler / episode intelligence
Speakers in the public record
Claim mix
Evidence policy
Every row below preserves an exact excerpt. Identified speakers are linked; unresolved voices are labeled and excluded from people counts.
Claim ledger
33 published records
01 / uncertainty
“Obviously, in some ways, the climate could be as fertile as ever for some type of third candidate running, but Bloomberg, I don’t know.”
02 / belief
“I think the biggest outlier is the number of intentional walks that Barry Bonds drew.”
03 / belief
“Paul Krugman I think would say, “Republicans are more racist than many people believe.”
04 / belief
“I think he’d push things in their way and have someone who might just be at the risk of pissing off the liberal base, but the Republicans have to look ridiculous opposing, as opposed to the other way around.”
05 / uncertainty
“I don’t know that much about international politics, even enough to have fun sitting like this to speculate all that much.”
06 / belief
“I’m enough of a lowercase L libertarian where I think that the government ought to have a stronger reason to intervene in choices that people are making instead of a lesser reason, necessarily.”
07 / observation
“The problem is that all those errors were in the same direction, so Republicans won when a lot of races around the country that they were underdogs in — not huge underdogs, except Virginia was almost a major upset.”
08 / belief
“You have this relatively stable, long boom politics and economics from the ’50s to the ’90s or the early 2000s, thereabouts, and that could potentially reverse itself. Again, looking at examples outside of the United States I think is instructive.”
09 / belief
“I think underrated. You probably saw my list a few weeks ago where, it’s short but it’s in a very dynamic section of town.”
10 / belief
“For me, a lot of the joy is in thinking through the process of it, so reading a book like this is really useful, because I talk about a process I think is pretty great.”
11 / belief
“A little bit of work, working 20 percent of the time, I think reduces your enjoyment by 70 percent.”
12 / belief
“Dickey, that already discernibly affects the success of both pitchers. But I think there is a second thing, which is that sports tends to engender conformism.”
13 / belief
“I think he should be more at two to one or something, so not a dramatic mispricing.”
14 / belief
“See, I think that might be the last field where — [laughter] Where you would have a lot of — and I don’t say that in a pejorative way at all.”
15 / belief
“I believe in the notion of a filter bubble, where people surround themselves where they’re getting like information and not confronting themselves with unpleasant facts, necessarily.”
16 / belief
“We get ourselves in a little bit of trouble I think at FiveThirtyEight at times, because we are fairly combative.”
17 / belief
“The other kind of statistical way to think about it is that when you have something which is unusual, then there’s a bigger error bar around it, so you could say, “Well, I think Trump is, on average, going to get less of the vote than someone who’s much higher than him in the polls,” but he has a much longer tail on the other side, and so therefore that’s one reason to not be dismissive of him, at least in the early going, when everyone is kind of a long shot, at least.”
18 / belief
“When I think of your work, I think of you as dedicated to the idea of numbers and data and wanting to apply that to as many different areas as possible.”
19 / uncertainty
“There are a few individual like models for winter weather that do. But I don’t know, it’s been kind of interesting, in my shoes, going from someone who was a total outsider, to someone who has more reputational risk.”
20 / belief
“I did think though that I, and a lot of people, overrated the ability of the Republican Party to stop what I think is, in some ways, a radical insurgency within the GOP.”
21 / evaluation
“Tiger Stadium is a park conducive to low batting averages to begin with, a little high home run totals. It’s not obvious to me that it was the best move, but it is interesting that, all of a sudden, baseball teams and football teams become, in general, more strategically correct when they have more on the line.”
22 / belief
“I think the markets are fairly close to correct right now. But I’ve been a Rubio optimist for a while, on the theory that he is the only candidate who really has appeal to all the various sectors and constituencies within the GOP, which may be a fraying party, but still, he has the highest favorability ratings in the party.”
23 / belief
“I think that — [laughter] The market would say that people find online services fairly useful.”
24 / preference
“” For example, I highly prefer — this is going off on a tangent — but I prefer regression-based modeling to machine learning, where you can’t really explain anything.”
25 / commitment
“Literally, and we built the system for ESPN a few years ago, where the only data that’s been kept in the long term in soccer is goals and bookings, red cards and yellow cards.”
26 / prediction
“Conditional on having won the GOP nomination, Trump will have had to display some staying power, some acumen, because sooner or later he will have to get beyond 35 percent to win 50 percent or so, and probably will have done something to improve his image with people who are not in his core constituency.”
27 / prediction
“That is important, I think. I got a little frustrated, because a lot of people were saying, “Trump’s instantly going to evaporate in the polls.”
28 / evaluation
“When underdogs win, they tend to win narrowly, and if Clinton wins some of the races she should have won or should have lost — because superdelegates turn a narrow Bernie win by a field goal into, “Oh, after further review, we’re going to have an overtime quarter.”
29 / evaluation
“In the very high-end restaurants of New York, it’s like so competitive that I think your rule about, order the weirdest thing on the menu, I think there are parts of New York where that probably isn’t true, because it’s so hyper competitive that the menu couldn’t afford to lead people astray.”
30 / recommendation
“In terms of areas that I would like us to focus on at FiveThirtyEight a little bit more than we do now, criminality and criminal justice is an interesting area, in part because you have lots of issues with data.”
31 / evaluation
“Basketball is less noisy, I will grant you, but in general, I think the Spurs are fairly analytics friendly, and the Rockets and the Warriors.”
32 / observation
“People also, when I go — and I used to do more Yelping and stuff like that — if I go to a mom-and-pop place in a small town somewhere and it’s not very good, there’s almost no way that I’m going to leave a negative review for that place.”
33 / evaluation
“It’s really hard to improve your lot in New York, at least at the neighborhood level. But I don’t know, it’s hard to find good hole-in-the-wall places to eat in the — although there’s some ramen shops that are getting better.”