Nate Silver: belief

Transcript context

…He throws the knuckleball at Jeb Bush. Jeb is baffled. Maybe now he’s finally coming up with a response. [laughter] The other kind of statistical way to think about it is that when you have something which is unusual, then there’s a bigger error bar around it, so you could say, “Well, I think Trump is, on average, going to get less of the vote than someone who’s much higher than him in the polls,” but he has a much longer tail on the other side, and so therefore that’s one reason to not be dismissive of him, at least in the early going, when everyone is kind of a long shot, at least. In all of these interviews, in the middle segment, we do a little game. It’s called “Underrated versus Overrated.” I name a few things, and you tell me if you think they’re underrated or overrated, and you’re free to pass on any you don’t want to have an opinion on. New York City, the Upper East Side. Overrated or underrated? [laughter] Are they really that happy in Seinfeld, and how did they afford that apartment, anyway?…

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