Nate Silver: belief

Transcript context

…You’ve got to go long on someone. You have a hundred dollars to bet. I think the markets are fairly close to correct right now. But I’ve been a Rubio optimist for a while, on the theory that he is the only candidate who really has appeal to all the various sectors and constituencies within the GOP, which may be a fraying party, but still, he has the highest favorability ratings in the party. He speaks the language of conservatives without being too extreme, but the big question in the election right now is, “Where is Trump’s ceiling?” If you start out at 25 percent, like he did in Iowa, that’s one thing. Thirty-five percent is much closer to the point where he’d be hard to stop, but even now, you see in New Hampshire, even though he won with 35 percent of the vote, half of the Republicans there said they would not want him as their nominee, so the question is, “Can the non-Trump candidates organize themselves into one candidate?” And then does he stop at 35 percent, or 40, or 45, or 51? If he stops at 51, then it kind of doesn’t matter. I suppose I think Rubio at — what is he at? Three to one? Something like that.…

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