Nate Silver: uncertainty

Transcript context

…Now let me get to the question that maybe the crowd most wants to hear. Who will be the next president of the United Arab Emirates? [laughter] Now this is a trick question because it’s a hereditary monarchy, but here’s my background question. Intelligence agencies and scholars did very poorly forecasting the Arab Spring and did very poorly forecasting ISIS. So you’re put on the case, someone from Washington, McLean, wherever. They call you in. They say, “What variables should we be looking at to understand the Middle East that we’re underweighting right now?” I know it’s a tough question, but who will be the next president of the United Arab Emirates? Will there be a next president? How do you think about what’s happening there? Black swans or a regularized process? We have all certain compromises. I don’t know that much about international politics, even enough to have fun sitting like this to speculate all that much. I flew via Emirates Airlines. It’s the extent of my knowledge about the UAE pretty much. [laughs] Not this election cycle but four more years out, this nation, what’s your best pick for who will be elected president?…

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