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Complexity Investing & Semiconductors (with NZS Capital)

3 Nov 2021 40 published claims 2 attributable people
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Speakers in the public record

Ben GilbertDavid Rosenthal

Claim mix

belief 25evaluation 8recommendation 2uncertainty 2observation 1commitment 1preference 1

Evidence policy

Every row below preserves an exact excerpt. Identified speakers are linked; unresolved voices are labeled and excluded from people counts.

Claim ledger

The useful parts, with receipts.

40 published records

03 / belief

I shouldn’t joke about if, but it wouldn’t be totally dissimilar to what’s happening in Afghanistan, where I think you just airlift as many TSMC folks out of there as possible in a short period of time.

“I shouldn’t joke about if, but it wouldn’t be totally dissimilar to what’s happening in Afghanistan, where I think you just airlift as many TSMC folks out of there as possible in a short period of time.”
Speaker
Not verified from transcript
Publisher
Acquired

04 / belief

Another half trillion dollars to the TSMC value creation story, but you get the broader point. It’s just trillions of dollars of market cap that TSMC has created for their partners, which I think is just so cool.

“Another half trillion dollars to the TSMC value creation story, but you get the broader point. It’s just trillions of dollars of market cap that TSMC has created for their partners, which I think is just so cool.”
Speaker
Not verified from transcript
Publisher
Acquired

07 / belief

I think that the way you framed it, Ben, that if the company does have employees that aren't driving the, I guess level of growth that you'd be seeing in a hyper growth firm, that's okay as long as it's hyper durable.

“I think that the way you framed it, Ben, that if the company does have employees that aren't driving the, I guess level of growth that you'd be seeing in a hyper growth firm, that's okay as long as it's hyper durable.”
Speaker
Not verified from transcript
Publisher
Acquired

08 / belief

You’ll be shrinking the transistor to pack more performance into a chip. But I think that the broader point you hear from the industry, a lot of this concept of, there’s more than Moore, which is kind of a cheeky pun.

“You’ll be shrinking the transistor to pack more performance into a chip. But I think that the broader point you hear from the industry, a lot of this concept of, there’s more than Moore, which is kind of a cheeky pun.”
Speaker
Not verified from transcript
Publisher
Acquired

15 / belief

What we're trying to do with the tail of the portfolio, and I think what you guys are trying to do in venture capital investing, is maximize the probability that we get lucky.

“What we're trying to do with the tail of the portfolio, and I think what you guys are trying to do in venture capital investing, is maximize the probability that we get lucky.”
Speaker
Not verified from transcript
Publisher
Acquired

17 / belief

Yeah, which is so cool because obviously now a traditional Internet or ecommerce platform, the way most of SaaS platform, the way we think about platforms is like a manufacturing platform which is just so unique.

“Yeah, which is so cool because obviously now a traditional Internet or ecommerce platform, the way most of SaaS platform, the way we think about platforms is like a manufacturing platform which is just so unique.”
Speaker
Not verified from transcript
Publisher
Acquired

20 / belief

We've talked about it a lot,because you're certainly, in some cases, leaving money on the table (I think) if we're not letting our compounders really express themselves over time.

“We've talked about it a lot,because you're certainly, in some cases, leaving money on the table (I think) if we're not letting our compounders really express themselves over time.”
Speaker
Not verified from transcript
Publisher
Acquired

22 / observation

When you leave money on the table, what you’re doing is you’re creating goodwill for your customers and you’re buying the company duration, which is oftentimes the way to maximize total value.

“When you leave money on the table, what you’re doing is you’re creating goodwill for your customers and you’re buying the company duration, which is oftentimes the way to maximize total value.”
Speaker
Not verified from transcript
Publisher
Acquired

25 / belief

Of course, we kept reading, we kept writing. This is probably 2011–2012, and in 2013 we published this long paper that you reference, which is super geeky, but it's got a lot of pictures because that's the way we think.

“Of course, we kept reading, we kept writing. This is probably 2011–2012, and in 2013 we published this long paper that you reference, which is super geeky, but it's got a lot of pictures because that's the way we think.”
Speaker
Not verified from transcript
Publisher
Acquired

26 / belief

In one portfolio theory, you're taking an ensemble of all these. But that doesn't really make sense because I don't really care about your outcome, David or Ben, I care about my outcome.

“In one portfolio theory, you're taking an ensemble of all these. But that doesn't really make sense because I don't really care about your outcome, David or Ben, I care about my outcome.”
Speaker
Not verified from transcript
Publisher
Acquired

27 / belief

I think the interesting thing about the semiconductor ecosystem is actually there’s a lot of people capturing margin, and they’re captioning really high margin.

“I think the interesting thing about the semiconductor ecosystem is actually there’s a lot of people capturing margin, and they’re captioning really high margin.”
Speaker
Not verified from transcript
Publisher
Acquired

28 / belief

I think what we try to do is not make sure that an optional position ends up in the head of the portfolio, because that's something we've just learned the hard way.

“I think what we try to do is not make sure that an optional position ends up in the head of the portfolio, because that's something we've just learned the hard way.”
Speaker
Not verified from transcript
Publisher
Acquired

29 / belief

You’re never going to get 100% growth—it’s impossible—but you might get 20% for 30 years, which I think the number that you guess on your podcast is 17.

“You’re never going to get 100% growth—it’s impossible—but you might get 20% for 30 years, which I think the number that you guess on your podcast is 17.”
Speaker
Not verified from transcript
Publisher
Acquired

30 / belief

I think building that into a culture where it's okay to be wrong and move on and fail quickly versus string ourselves along on a three-year journey in a tough position.

“I think building that into a culture where it's okay to be wrong and move on and fail quickly versus string ourselves along on a three-year journey in a tough position.”
Speaker
Not verified from transcript
Publisher
Acquired

31 / evaluation

Just to keep pushing on this, the reason that this is a plausible story that we got this from UFOs is because the magic behind how a semiconductor works is so mind-blowing and unfathomable that you could just experiment your way to finding this.

“Just to keep pushing on this, the reason that this is a plausible story that we got this from UFOs is because the magic behind how a semiconductor works is so mind-blowing and unfathomable that you could just experiment your way to finding this.”
Speaker
Ben Gilbert
Publisher
Acquired

33 / evaluation

Another thing that I think we kind of glazed over in our TSMC episode is the current state of Moore’s law from a liberal perspective, but then probably more interesting, the current state of the spirit of Moore’s law.

“Another thing that I think we kind of glazed over in our TSMC episode is the current state of Moore’s law from a liberal perspective, but then probably more interesting, the current state of the spirit of Moore’s law.”
Speaker
Ben Gilbert
Publisher
Acquired

34 / commitment

Because if you actually understand, well our earnings could be this if we wanted it to, or our growth rate could be this if we wanted it to, but we’re making strategic trade-offs to not do that, then you actually have a unique ability to underwrite the company’s value and thus actually more of a margin of safety or more of a willingness to pay up than anybody else.

“Because if you actually understand, well our earnings could be this if we wanted it to, or our growth rate could be this if we wanted it to, but we’re making strategic trade-offs to not do that, then you actually have a unique ability to underwrite the company’s value and thus actually more of a margin of safety or more of a willingness to pay up than anybody else.”
Speaker
Ben Gilbert
Publisher
Acquired

36 / evaluation

First, let's start with Complexity Theory, which is a concept that your whole firm is based on and you've published a 47-page paper on, that is just (a) full of fun little graphics, but (b) I think probably has 5–8 mind-blowing concepts in them.

“First, let's start with Complexity Theory, which is a concept that your whole firm is based on and you've published a 47-page paper on, that is just (a) full of fun little graphics, but (b) I think probably has 5–8 mind-blowing concepts in them.”
Speaker
Ben Gilbert
Publisher
Acquired

39 / evaluation

If you set everything up with the idea that you don't know, I think in a lot of ways, most venture capitalists grok this idea and set up their portfolios in this way.

“If you set everything up with the idea that you don't know, I think in a lot of ways, most venture capitalists grok this idea and set up their portfolios in this way.”
Speaker
David Rosenthal
Publisher
Acquired

40 / evaluation

In a very Buffett sense, if it works, it's going to be so freaking successful that this is a great price to own it at. Do I know if this is the right price to own it at?

“In a very Buffett sense, if it works, it's going to be so freaking successful that this is a great price to own it at. Do I know if this is the right price to own it at?”
Speaker
Ben Gilbert
Publisher
Acquired
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