Evidence receipt / belief
Published · transcript-backedSpeaker unverified: belief
3 Nov 2021 Acquired Complexity Investing & Semiconductors (with NZS Capital)
“There are other predictions like we think EUVs are going to dominate the world and Tesla is going to be the power law winner inside of EPs.”
— Speaker unverified
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Everything needed to verify it.
- Speaker
- Speaker unverified
- Attribution
- Not verified from this transcript
- Claim type
- belief
- Recorded
- 3 Nov 2021
- Publisher
- Acquired
Transcript context
…Okay, so that's the resilience side of NZS thinking and the portfolio. Then you also marry that with something very different. Tell us a little bit about optionality and how you think about that? We're thinking about the future. We're just thinking about how broad and safe is the prediction we're making. We can make these very broad, safe predictions, like we think electronics are going to push deeper into the world. I think in 9 out of 10 copies of the multiverse that's happening. There are other predictions like we think EUVs are going to dominate the world and Tesla is going to be the power law winner inside of EPs. That may only happen in 2 out of 10 copies of the multiverse, certainly not 10 out of 10. These predictions are much narrower and the range of outcomes is much broader. That doesn't mean we can't invest there because it's incredibly asymmetric if we end up being in that copy of the multiverse. But if we're not and it's a zero, it also doesn't torpedo the portfolio. I feel like actually, you guys could give the masterclass here since you're such great venture capital investors, but that's really what we're trying to expose ourselves to and these earlier stage public equity companies. How do you actually then apply both of these very different principles inside the same portfolio? Are you picking some stocks because you're maximizing for resilience, and you say, look, this is a great compounding slow growth, but durable company. And then there are other companies that you're investing in because you say, oh, my gosh. If this thing's right, it's going to be really right, like venture capital asymmetric upside right. Or is it blended in some of the same companies?…
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