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Published · transcript-backed

Ben Gilbert: evaluation

3 Nov 2021 Acquired Complexity Investing & Semiconductors (with NZS Capital)

“Another thing that I think we kind of glazed over in our TSMC episode is the current state of Moore’s law from a liberal perspective, but then probably more interesting, the current state of the spirit of Moore’s law.”

— Ben Gilbert

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Speaker
Ben Gilbert
Attribution
Verified speaker
Claim type
evaluation
Recorded
3 Nov 2021
Publisher
Acquired

Transcript context

…We don’t. We’ve owned China tech for a long time, but we put this portfolio together at the end of 2019. It just looked sketchy to us, honestly. I don’t know for lack of a better word. We owned zero China tech. We just thought we don’t have to be there. There are other places that are very interesting. It’s a question of ownership. We’re not really sure who owns these companies. And through the ADR structure and the VI structure, we know we don’t own them, so we just [01:15:59]. Yeah, makes sense. Well, I want to come back to some more technical questions. Another thing that I think we kind of glazed over in our TSMC episode is the current state of Moore’s law from a liberal perspective, but then probably more interesting, the current state of the spirit of Moore’s law. I was wondering, maybe Jon let’s go to you. Could you give us a little bit of a download on, does Moore’s law still work at least spiritually? I’m glad the way you framed it that way because it is kind of a religious debate, and people much smarter than me in the semi industry around both sides of it, is the true Gordon Moore, Moore’s law still holding up? I think for the spirit of Moore’s law, we still have revisibility probably for the next 10–15 years. To be honest, the industry never had more than 10-15 years of revisibility. I think obviously the death of Moore’s law has been pronounced for a very long time. But I think that’s one thing to keep in mind is there are a lot of things out there that’s going to keep us driving down Moore’s law. One thing that you guys covered well in the TSMC episode is the implementation of EUV systems from ASML. They actually are allowing us to shrink the transistor—the fundamental building block two-dimensionally, so actually putting more transistors into a chip—so ASML comes on record saying to think that EUV will last about 15 years.…

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