01 / belief
I wouldn't say all will, but I think there probably is something in that direction.
“I wouldn't say all will, but I think there probably is something in that direction.”
- Speaker
- Sam Bankman-Fried
- Publisher
- Dwarkesh Podcast
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Published podcast speaker
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57 transcript-backed records
01 / belief
“I wouldn't say all will, but I think there probably is something in that direction.”
02 / belief
“If I had to guess I would say that a lot of properties of what is happening crypto today will make their way into Trad Fi to some extent.”
03 / evaluation
“I think so. There's some extent to which they differ, but more that they actually want the same thing—and harmonizing them can be really valuable.”
04 / evaluation
“It was the first time that I gave on that scale in a race. And I did it because he was, of all the candidates in the cycle, the most outspoken on the need for more pandemic preparedness and prevention.”
05 / evaluation
“What would our risk model say about that? It's not super helpful for those commodities right now because it doesn't know how to understand a warehouse.”
06 / observation
“To a surprising extent, we found that the experience of the people that we hire has not had much correlation with how much mentorship they need.”
07 / preference
“” When you're looking at developers, I think we want people who can understand what FTX is, how it works, and thus what the right way to architect things would be for that rather than treating it as an abstract engineering problem divorced from the ultimate product.”
08 / evaluation
“To the extent you're just thinking of personal criteria, that's going to argue heavily in favor of a safer career path because you have much more quickly declining marginal utility of money than the world does.”
09 / commitment
“We're going to start doing that because we think there are really important things to fund and to start scaling up those systems.”
10 / preference
“For instance, if you could have either two half-time employees or one full-time employee, you're way better off with one full-time employee because they're going to have more context than either of the part-time employees would have—thus be able to work way more efficiently.”
11 / recommendation
“Most startups and especially very early-stage startups should not be trying to maximize the chances of having at least a little bit of success. But that means you have to be okay with the personal fallout of failing and that we have to build a community that is okay with that.”
12 / belief
“What I think I would do is one of two things, and I don’t want to say these are the causes that necessarily matter the most, long term.”
13 / uncertainty
“If that’s where you start, you can just look at, “Well, okay, what scale would that have to be at?” Pick your favorite big thing — I don’t know — big internet thing.”
14 / belief
“I think that, more generally, even if it’s not framed in terms of thinking hard about numbers necessarily, there’s something very quantitative about how you view the world if you’re thinking about things from a utilitarian perspective, from a consequentialist perspective.”
15 / belief
“The Patriots are probably the most notable example of that, and I think everyone knows it’s about Belichick and the staff that he’s built and the culture that he’s built, centered around outthinking some other coaches.”
16 / recommendation
“I think working out the healthcare infrastructure, or obviously — and especially with the world we’re in — direct cash transfers are always within an order of magnitude of the best thing you could do.”
17 / evaluation
“In particular, I think I was a pretty good manager when everything was going really well, conditional on there being no real problems.”
18 / evaluation
“There certainly is a lot more funding than there was before, but saying it’s not funding-constrained — I think people go too far in that, and to some extent that’s a symptom of not thinking hard enough about great ways to spend money.”
19 / prediction
“Certainly companies, and maybe even industries — you want on a single shard, so I think you want millions of TPS [transactions per second] per shard if you are going to shard it. And that, basically, gets me to where I am, which is, when you’re looking at the type of things that could scale to support gigantic billion-person applications online, I think you’re looking at a very limited number of blockchains that are focusing very heavily on their scaling.”
20 / commitment
“I will say that I have been giving some funding to an org Guarding Against Pandemics.”
21 / preference
“Then a thing that is really important — at least in how we function — is having a company culture that that is what matters, and making it clear that in the end, that’s what we care about.”
22 / evaluation
“I think a lot of the reason is that a nice property of games is, you’re just put in front of a messy situation, and in the end, your directions are “Do the best you can.”
23 / preference
“” I’d had a burger for lunch that day, so “yes” was not a factually supported answer at that time, but I have not eaten meat since. It was way easier for me once I went cold turkey than it was for me to try to wean myself off it because the cognitive load of every time that I went to eat, having to decide what I could and couldn’t eat and should and shouldn’t eat was just overwhelming me.”
24 / recommendation
“I will try Patagonia because a big problem I think a lot of people make — feel free to disagree — is not drenching them in salt and oil.”
25 / preference
“Speaking for myself here, I will say that I find that I’m not very compelled by life extension research for the exact reason you’ve said.”
26 / belief
“I think I tend to find some things more credible than other people do sometimes and tend to believe a little bit more.”
27 / uncertainty
“I didn't really know who they were. I don't know if the blockchain does it. I really didn't know what crypto was when I first jumped in.”
28 / belief
“I think that's something that we think is important that we continue to move in that direction over time.”
29 / belief
“I think that in the end, our sense of this is this isn't, you can choose to be compliant or you can choose to be functional, and you have to choose which company you're launching.”
30 / belief
“A lot of this is something that you have to figure out over time. But I think a lot of this is like, you put someone in an uncertain messy situation where there's no obvious right answer.”
31 / belief
“The scale of it, in theory, if one had infinite capital, one could have made 10% on a few $100 million a day, maybe. I think $20 million was the size of this trade.”
32 / belief
“I do think we're still trying to do that. But I agree that there's some extent to which you can get liquidity moats, customer moats, regulatory moats, and whatever.”
33 / uncertainty
“If you asked me what is a Bitcoin, I would not have been able to give you an answer other than a thing that trades on some exchanges and decentralization. I don't know.”
34 / belief
“I think that I was a little too skeptical of the US opportunities when we first started.”
35 / belief
“The answer is that there actually weren't a lot of other players in this value chain. That's one of the bigger differences between what we see in crypto and I think what we see in most financial ecosystems.”
36 / belief
“I think, eventually, a story that convinced them was that FTX would be exciting and convinced a lot of people.”
37 / belief
“At least long-term, we really want to try hard not to cut off avenues that we think are going to be valuable.”
38 / uncertainty
“Can you walk through that assumption? I don't know if you realize you made an assumption there.”
39 / belief
“I think we're basically still making this up as we go, and that it's probably going to be a while before people feel like, all right, we now understand all the implications that that ended up having for society.”
40 / belief
“I think that part of that is you look at the breadth and to some extent, frankly, randomness, of the type of things that we've tried to do.”
41 / belief
“I think thinking about did we ever succeed at getting retail users at penetrating that market is going to be one of the things that I think we're going to grade ourselves on, which I think I'm cautiously optimistic about, but we haven't proven that.”
42 / belief
“I more feel like it probably is. I think that's the right prior to have about it.”
43 / uncertainty
“Just bumming around the Bay Area and seeing what happened was one of them. Trying to find some startups, I don't know what was one of them.”
44 / uncertainty
“I think maybe another consequence of that or I don't know what flows from what exactly, but maybe a related statement is that I don't think of us as we've built the hard thing and now we’re coasting.”
45 / belief
“I think often people get flustered and end up doing nothing close to the best they can because they're just like, oh, geez, I don't even know what to do here.”
46 / belief
“Again, this isn't meant to be precise. Back then, daily trading volume was only a few billion dollars, I think.”
47 / belief
“I think that you're seeing a lot of parallel worlds being spun off because you can split into different social media, for better or for worse.”
48 / uncertainty
“One percent, I don't know that I'd ever done a trade good by 1% before in my life on anything.”
49 / prediction
“I think that having a built-in example of like, we are quite confident that this is going to be a product with demand because we've wanted this product for a while.”
50 / evaluation
“There's eventually a lot of things that ended up becoming pretty relevant here. But I think the most legible thing and the most egregious thing at the time was this 83% of profits thing where it's just like, okay, that will change, that has to change.”
51 / evaluation
“In the end, most of our initial growth came from power users, the people who are spending hours a day in the ecosystem, and would try out every new exchange that came, and use the ones that they liked the most, that was the best fit.”
52 / commitment
“We started by not servicing Americans because it just had a really long regulatory regime.”
53 / prediction
“The biggest thing that we're anticipating is the launch of derivatives hopefully sometime in the next year that we think could really bring a lot that's been missing to the market.”
54 / prediction
“I think some of it is also a lot of hypotheses about ways that product differentiation would happen in the exchange space started playing out.”
55 / evaluation
“It's a variable cost and it just decreases your revenue, whatever, but it's basically near zero. So we felt like we've been using these products, we understand it, it's a big business, but okay, fine, whatever.”
56 / prediction
“Make 2% on that. I think that's like $200,000. That's an estimate for how much money, maybe, you could make per day doing arbitrage.”
57 / prediction
“I can't tell you what that is now because the world might change, which is, honestly sometimes how we think about things, that the world does change and you have to adapt.”