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Evidence receipt / prediction

Published · transcript-backed

Sam Bankman-Fried: prediction

15 Dec 2021 Acquired FTX (with Sam Bankman-Fried & Mario Gabriele)

“Make 2% on that. I think that's like $200,000. That's an estimate for how much money, maybe, you could make per day doing arbitrage.”

— Sam Bankman-Fried

Source trail

Everything needed to verify it.

Speaker
Sam Bankman-Fried
Attribution
Verified speaker
Claim type
prediction
Recorded
15 Dec 2021
Publisher
Acquired

Transcript context

…Was that even across major exchanges, not even go in esoteric? Coinbase to Bitstamp was usually like 1% or 2%. That's not even looking at Bitfinex or anything based on Tether, Japan, Korea, or anything like that, which would sometimes get in the 20%. What does this number say? Some number of percent. Let's say 2% maybe you could make times a few billion, times 1% of volume. So 1% volume is $20 million of volume or something like that. Make 2% on that. I think that's like $200,000. That's an estimate for how much money, maybe, you could make per day doing arbitrage. That's a lot of money to make each day. I saw that and it's like, oh, wow. Again, I don't know. This all might be fake, but if it's not fake, that's pretty compelling. That was enough for me to go create some accounts on exchanges, try and do it, and see what happened. Sam, do you remember where you were when you first looked at that CoinMarketCap page and the sensation of recognizing opportunity there?…

Stored transcript either side of the excerpt. The highlighted words are the published quote; the surrounding text is unedited source, never generated.

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