person / recommends
Kevin Roose
“On The New York Times, I, I share your disappointment. I, I recommend Kevin Roose and, and Hard Fork out of The New York Times family of-”
Public evidence record
Nathan Labenz
Host · The Cognitive Revolution
- Claims
- 258
- Episodes
- 33
- Shows
- 1
- Named items
- 9
Books, apps, and tools
The evidenced stack.
tool / uses
Claude Max
“And certainly if you were to triple it from there, you'd be getting into something on the order of magnitude of parity with human headcount. What are you doing with it all too? Because I use my $200 Claude Max and my Codex Pro and I honestly don't even hit my limits that often.”
tool / uses
Codex Pro
“And certainly if you were to triple it from there, you'd be getting into something on the order of magnitude of parity with human headcount. What are you doing with it all too? Because I use my $200 Claude Max and my Codex Pro and I honestly don't even hit my limits that often.”
app / uses
Claude Max
“What are you doing with it all too? Because I use my $200 Claude Max and my Codex Pro and I honestly don't even hit my limits that often.”
app / uses
Codex Pro
“What are you doing with it all too? Because I use my $200 Claude Max and my Codex Pro and I honestly don't even hit my limits that often.”
tool / uses
Gemini 3 flash
“I think I used Gemini 3 flash at the time.”
app / uses
Claude
“That's probably the biggest reason that I use Claude is that I perceive it to be most robust to that kind of stuff.”
app / uses
Beeper Desktop
“I use Beeper Desktop to try to like aggregate a half dozen or so of them. That's also kind of painful. I feel like Beeper Desktop is, Good idea crashes a lot for me.”
other / likes
AE Studio
“Is there stuff that we can do or is it, you know, is there is it a different organization's job to figure out how to fill that gap. Because I do feel like I want some more, and I love some of the AE Studio stuff, including self-other overlap.”
Claim ledger
What Nathan said.
18 transcript-backed records
01 / prediction
They are, they are beings that are meant to be helpful, right? So there's, as I'm sure you're well aware, there's this line of thinking that's even if we get the alignment right, we might end up in a spot where we're quite unhappy because we'll hand over more and more responsibility and key decision making and ultimately kind of power to AIS because they're better at a lot of things.
“They are, they are beings that are meant to be helpful, right? So there's, as I'm sure you're well aware, there's this line of thinking that's even if we get the alignment right, we might end up in a spot where we're quite unhappy because we'll hand over more and more responsibility and key decision making and ultimately kind of power to AIS because they're better at a lot of things.”
- Speaker
- Nathan Labenz
- Episode
- Alignment with Awakening: Davidad on Moral Realism, AI Wisdom, & why His p(Doom) is Down to 5%
- Publisher
- The Cognitive Revolution
02 / prediction
One unfortunate thing about it is it's hard to test this. So I think the more that AI continues doing strange things to the world and we wake up and see strange things in the news and those strange things are metaculous questions and on forecast bench and see teams like mine are trying to predict them better, we will actually get more evidence.
“One unfortunate thing about it is it's hard to test this. So I think the more that AI continues doing strange things to the world and we wake up and see strange things in the news and those strange things are metaculous questions and on forecast bench and see teams like mine are trying to predict them better, we will actually get more evidence.”
- Speaker
- Nathan Labenz
- Episode
- AI:AM Highlights: Exploring the J-Space, AI Superforecasters, SambaNova's Chips, & LTX Video Gen
- Publisher
- The Cognitive Revolution
03 / prediction
I think the things that have happened in the years since AI 2027 come out very much indicate the theory that the most important thing going on is how useful is AI and improving the productivity of AI researchers within Frontier Labs.
“I think the things that have happened in the years since AI 2027 come out very much indicate the theory that the most important thing going on is how useful is AI and improving the productivity of AI researchers within Frontier Labs.”
- Speaker
- Nathan Labenz
- Episode
- AI:AM Highlights: Exploring the J-Space, AI Superforecasters, SambaNova's Chips, & LTX Video Gen
- Publisher
- The Cognitive Revolution
04 / prediction
Because I think once you start to realize that the robot will need to create like the simulation 30 times a second, you just like realize the amount of tokens that is going to be burned for the simulations.
“Because I think once you start to realize that the robot will need to create like the simulation 30 times a second, you just like realize the amount of tokens that is going to be burned for the simulations.”
- Speaker
- Nathan Labenz
- Episode
- AI:AM Highlights: Exploring the J-Space, AI Superforecasters, SambaNova's Chips, & LTX Video Gen
- Publisher
- The Cognitive Revolution
05 / prediction
" Uh, but I don't think it gets us probably entirely out of the, the woods and, you know, the, you may have seen the old Gwern essay about, like, why oracle AIs want to be agents. And it's, uh, I think he does make a pretty compelling point that there is, like, just a lot of gravity toward this sort of agentic, um, form factor because even just to get the right answer to a lot of questions, you kinda have to go out and find it, you know?
“" Uh, but I don't think it gets us probably entirely out of the, the woods and, you know, the, you may have seen the old Gwern essay about, like, why oracle AIs want to be agents. And it's, uh, I think he does make a pretty compelling point that there is, like, just a lot of gravity toward this sort of agentic, um, form factor because even just to get the right answer to a lot of questions, you kinda have to go out and find it, you know?”
- Speaker
- Nathan Labenz
- Publisher
- The Cognitive Revolution
06 / prediction
a war with the United States, and the United States not getting what it wants and kind of having to recognize that, like, yeah, we kind of have to fold this hand because we just actually don't really have escalation dominance in the way we might have thought we did.
“a war with the United States, and the United States not getting what it wants and kind of having to recognize that, like, yeah, we kind of have to fold this hand because we just actually don't really have escalation dominance in the way we might have thought we did.”
- Speaker
- Nathan Labenz
- Publisher
- The Cognitive Revolution
07 / prediction
An additional wrinkle that I think you often hear from folks at Anthropic is, like, we need a leader that is going to be inclined to burn their lead at a critical time to use the advanced AIs that they and only they will have at that time to, like, solve all these safety and alignment problems in a super compressed, um, timeframe.
“An additional wrinkle that I think you often hear from folks at Anthropic is, like, we need a leader that is going to be inclined to burn their lead at a critical time to use the advanced AIs that they and only they will have at that time to, like, solve all these safety and alignment problems in a super compressed, um, timeframe.”
- Speaker
- Nathan Labenz
- Publisher
- The Cognitive Revolution
08 / prediction
I think Zvi puts it well when he says you only get one significant digit on your P doom number.
“I think Zvi puts it well when he says you only get one significant digit on your P doom number.”
- Speaker
- Nathan Labenz
- Publisher
- The Cognitive Revolution
09 / prediction
Because I think there's still kind of a synthesis there that I don't mean to suggest that machine learning is over, but the analysis I've come to kind of time and again is like people may invent new techniques that are enough to change the field, change what's possible, accelerate things, maybe make dramatic improvements to the safety profiles.
“Because I think there's still kind of a synthesis there that I don't mean to suggest that machine learning is over, but the analysis I've come to kind of time and again is like people may invent new techniques that are enough to change the field, change what's possible, accelerate things, maybe make dramatic improvements to the safety profiles.”
- Speaker
- Nathan Labenz
- Publisher
- The Cognitive Revolution
10 / prediction
How, you know, it's it is going to be a whole new space to explore that is going to be very, very interesting, very productive, very exciting, very, very challenging, I think, for a lot of people, but it's It's definitely happening now as far as I can tell.
“How, you know, it's it is going to be a whole new space to explore that is going to be very, very interesting, very productive, very exciting, very, very challenging, I think, for a lot of people, but it's It's definitely happening now as far as I can tell.”
- Speaker
- Nathan Labenz
- Publisher
- The Cognitive Revolution
11 / prediction
It strikes me that the importance of mission and mission buy-in might really be at a premium in the near term, because I can just imagine a hugely different reaction if you sort of imagine your scene from The Office where it's kind of generic widget code, paper co, indistinguishable from tons of other competitors, where if you ask, if we don't do it, who will?
“It strikes me that the importance of mission and mission buy-in might really be at a premium in the near term, because I can just imagine a hugely different reaction if you sort of imagine your scene from The Office where it's kind of generic widget code, paper co, indistinguishable from tons of other competitors, where if you ask, if we don't do it, who will?”
- Speaker
- Nathan Labenz
- Publisher
- The Cognitive Revolution
12 / prediction
Tell me if you think this will play out differently, but I suspect that we're going to see a pretty similar phenomenon extended to the rest of the economy and probably a few successive waves over the not too long of a time horizon.
“Tell me if you think this will play out differently, but I suspect that we're going to see a pretty similar phenomenon extended to the rest of the economy and probably a few successive waves over the not too long of a time horizon.”
- Speaker
- Nathan Labenz
- Publisher
- The Cognitive Revolution
13 / prediction
One of the interesting ideas that I heard there that I had not heard before was that the model that you would want to have internally for AI research might have quite a different constitution from the one that you deploy publicly for kind of general purpose AI assistant use cases. And they seem to think that, in fact, you probably would want to have something even more focused on safety and more sort of restricted in some ways, but maybe also less inclined to refuse certain tasks, but basically a different behavioral profile, which I do think is interesting because if you're going to make this sort of chain of thought monitoring plan work, I do think you're probably going to need some meaningful diversity of the AIs.
“One of the interesting ideas that I heard there that I had not heard before was that the model that you would want to have internally for AI research might have quite a different constitution from the one that you deploy publicly for kind of general purpose AI assistant use cases. And they seem to think that, in fact, you probably would want to have something even more focused on safety and more sort of restricted in some ways, but maybe also less inclined to refuse certain tasks, but basically a different behavioral profile, which I do think is interesting because if you're going to make this sort of chain of thought monitoring plan work, I do think you're probably going to need some meaningful diversity of the AIs.”
- Speaker
- Nathan Labenz
- Publisher
- The Cognitive Revolution
14 / prediction
One thing that you hear fairly often and that I definitely have to say I take more seriously now in light of actually seeing the AIS that we have, that I had expected to even just a few years ago, is a sort of maybe not quite to alignment by default, but a sort of like benevolent basin idea.
“One thing that you hear fairly often and that I definitely have to say I take more seriously now in light of actually seeing the AIS that we have, that I had expected to even just a few years ago, is a sort of maybe not quite to alignment by default, but a sort of like benevolent basin idea.”
- Speaker
- Nathan Labenz
- Episode
- All Compute Is Food: Palisade's Jeffrey Ladish on AI Shutdown Resistance, Self-Replication & Ecology
- Publisher
- The Cognitive Revolution
15 / prediction
I think that's really interesting stuff on generative models. And I think the perspective also on like, there won't just be one winner makes a lot of sense too.
“I think that's really interesting stuff on generative models. And I think the perspective also on like, there won't just be one winner makes a lot of sense too.”
- Speaker
- Nathan Labenz
- Publisher
- The Cognitive Revolution
16 / prediction
You know, I don't know, maybe I, I wouldn't give it that low of a percentage that they have subjective experience, but I, I think I feel comfortable saying my best guess is like well below half chance that they do so.
“You know, I don't know, maybe I, I wouldn't give it that low of a percentage that they have subjective experience, but I, I think I feel comfortable saying my best guess is like well below half chance that they do so.”
- Speaker
- Nathan Labenz
- Episode
- AI in the AM: 99% off search, GPT-5.5 is "clean", model welfare analysis, & efficient analog compute
- Publisher
- The Cognitive Revolution
17 / prediction
I think I predict a lot less wriggling on my part to try to get out of it. And I think you'd see a lot less motivated reasoning in general from people if it was all like that.
“I think I predict a lot less wriggling on my part to try to get out of it. And I think you'd see a lot less motivated reasoning in general from people if it was all like that.”
- Speaker
- Nathan Labenz
- Episode
- Does Learning Require Feeling? Cameron Berg on the latest AI Consciousness & Welfare Research
- Publisher
- The Cognitive Revolution
18 / prediction
e even before ai in 2010 it turns out like big companies didn't need five to ten percent of their people how high does that go to me it seems like it clearly goes to a majority of people that are just going to have a really hard time contributing in the sort of fully realized aiified enterprise of the future and maybe we still have executives because we want judgment or decision making or whatever but there's not a lot of executives so i tend to come to an end state of we're going to need a new social contract we're going to need a ubi and then obviously it becomes a huge question how do we get there and on what timeline and what does that transition look like and i don't have good answers i like often wave my hands and say we'll have to figure that out but it doesn't have a lot of time to figure that out but anyway
“e even before ai in 2010 it turns out like big companies didn't need five to ten percent of their people how high does that go to me it seems like it clearly goes to a majority of people that are just going to have a really hard time contributing in the sort of fully realized aiified enterprise of the future and maybe we still have executives because we want judgment or decision making or whatever but there's not a lot of executives so i tend to come to an end state of we're going to need a new social contract we're going to need a ubi and then obviously it becomes a huge question how do we get there and on what timeline and what does that transition look like and i don't have good answers i like often wave my hands and say we'll have to figure that out but it doesn't have a lot of time to figure that out but anyway”
- Speaker
- Nathan Labenz
- Episode
- Pioneering PAI: How Daniel Miessler's Personal AI Infrastructure Activates Human Agency & Creativity
- Publisher
- The Cognitive Revolution