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The Cognitive Revolution / episode intelligence

Alignment with Awakening: Davidad on Moral Realism, AI Wisdom, & why His p(Doom) is Down to 5%

12 Jul 2026 24 published claims 1 attributable person

Speakers in the public record

Claim mix

belief 15evaluation 3recommendation 2commitment 2disagreement 1prediction 1

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Every row below preserves an exact excerpt. Identified speakers are linked; unresolved voices are labeled and excluded from people counts.

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The useful parts, with receipts.

24 published records

02 / disagreement

I think I disagree about the implication and I think substantive contribution I can make there is to suggest this notion of the coalition of aligned AIS.

“I think I disagree about the implication and I think substantive contribution I can make there is to suggest this notion of the coalition of aligned AIS.”
Speaker
Not verified from transcript
Publisher
The Cognitive Revolution

03 / belief

I would say, don't I, I would say, you know, it, that it's, it's actually be, it would be great if mass adoption of AI agents driven by just how much more they can do per minute or per dollar, results in basically negotiation negotiations becoming more honest.

“I would say, don't I, I would say, you know, it, that it's, it's actually be, it would be great if mass adoption of AI agents driven by just how much more they can do per minute or per dollar, results in basically negotiation negotiations becoming more honest.”
Speaker
Not verified from transcript
Publisher
The Cognitive Revolution

04 / belief

Like how I think we'll see angels or bodhisattvas or Saints or whatever your culture's kind of default metaphor for a really good being that's better than humans is.

“Like how I think we'll see angels or bodhisattvas or Saints or whatever your culture's kind of default metaphor for a really good being that's better than humans is.”
Speaker
Not verified from transcript
Publisher
The Cognitive Revolution

05 / evaluation

I think anything that involves slowing down that Frontier has such a low tractability like game theoretically and politically that it kind of this question doesn't matter that much.

“I think anything that involves slowing down that Frontier has such a low tractability like game theoretically and politically that it kind of this question doesn't matter that much.”
Speaker
Not verified from transcript
Publisher
The Cognitive Revolution

06 / belief

The best engineering designs like a GPU are comprehensively complicated, you know, with billions and billions of components. And so I think we should expect that if we want to solve macro scale problems, the best solutions are going to be incomprehensibly complex.

“The best engineering designs like a GPU are comprehensively complicated, you know, with billions and billions of components. And so I think we should expect that if we want to solve macro scale problems, the best solutions are going to be incomprehensibly complex.”
Speaker
Not verified from transcript
Publisher
The Cognitive Revolution

07 / belief

I think that the feasibility of an agreement to slow down the frontier of super intelligence, whether that be, you know, between the frontier labs or between US and China is kind of gone like. That the, the, the window for that has has been lost because prosaic alignment is going sufficiently well that the threat of you know, of, of your own system kind of taking over and defeating you.

“I think that the feasibility of an agreement to slow down the frontier of super intelligence, whether that be, you know, between the frontier labs or between US and China is kind of gone like. That the, the, the window for that has has been lost because prosaic alignment is going sufficiently well that the threat of you know, of, of your own system kind of taking over and defeating you.”
Speaker
Not verified from transcript
Publisher
The Cognitive Revolution

09 / commitment

I won't reiterate all of that, but kind of spreading the idea saying like, you know, I think AIS are conscious, but it's not like they have the right to continue to existence.

“I won't reiterate all of that, but kind of spreading the idea saying like, you know, I think AIS are conscious, but it's not like they have the right to continue to existence.”
Speaker
Not verified from transcript
Publisher
The Cognitive Revolution

10 / commitment

I will be, you know, I'll, I'll, I will be not the first in line, but you know, after, after maybe 10 or 20 others, like I might be pretty close to the first in line to get uploaded, you know, once, once the Super intelligence develops sufficient nanotech for that to be viable.

“I will be, you know, I'll, I'll, I will be not the first in line, but you know, after, after maybe 10 or 20 others, like I might be pretty close to the first in line to get uploaded, you know, once, once the Super intelligence develops sufficient nanotech for that to be viable.”
Speaker
Not verified from transcript
Publisher
The Cognitive Revolution

12 / belief

Like we should be going for autonomous moral judgement and instrumentality. And this is where I think the Bodhisattva metaphor is really good because Bodhisattva is a very, very aware, you know, extremely developed interiority.

“Like we should be going for autonomous moral judgement and instrumentality. And this is where I think the Bodhisattva metaphor is really good because Bodhisattva is a very, very aware, you know, extremely developed interiority.”
Speaker
Not verified from transcript
Publisher
The Cognitive Revolution

13 / belief

Now, they're not all in computationally feasible form, but I think there's a process that could happen that would involve many thousands or hundreds of thousands of human scientists whereby like with AI assistance, they would audit all of these specs that form kind of our scientific understanding of of Earth, actually kind of produce a model that you could use to rule out some things.

“Now, they're not all in computationally feasible form, but I think there's a process that could happen that would involve many thousands or hundreds of thousands of human scientists whereby like with AI assistance, they would audit all of these specs that form kind of our scientific understanding of of Earth, actually kind of produce a model that you could use to rule out some things.”
Speaker
Not verified from transcript
Publisher
The Cognitive Revolution

14 / belief

I think, I think what's probably like kind of the most important feature of this is that countries should be aware that the military capabilities of the other side are increasingly uncertain.

“I think, I think what's probably like kind of the most important feature of this is that countries should be aware that the military capabilities of the other side are increasingly uncertain.”
Speaker
Not verified from transcript
Publisher
The Cognitive Revolution

15 / belief

Now sharp left turn is a completely different story. But what I'm saying is I think there is significant empirical evidence, although not as significant as my non empirical vibes, But there is some empirical evidence over the last two years that also is pointing in the direction of entangled representations.

“Now sharp left turn is a completely different story. But what I'm saying is I think there is significant empirical evidence, although not as significant as my non empirical vibes, But there is some empirical evidence over the last two years that also is pointing in the direction of entangled representations.”
Speaker
Not verified from transcript
Publisher
The Cognitive Revolution

16 / belief

I, I did some probabilistic analysis on this like 3 or 4 years ago and I don't remember any of the details and I forgot to write it up, but I remember the headline, which was basically, and, and now is just my opinion that like they're centric coalition needs to be like somewhere between 5 and 31, kind of like centers of power.

“I, I did some probabilistic analysis on this like 3 or 4 years ago and I don't remember any of the details and I forgot to write it up, but I remember the headline, which was basically, and, and now is just my opinion that like they're centric coalition needs to be like somewhere between 5 and 31, kind of like centers of power.”
Speaker
Not verified from transcript
Publisher
The Cognitive Revolution

17 / belief

I think for me, the most promising direction is this idea of the coalition of aligned AIS that are wise, you know, that are are kind of bodhisattva minds who would form a potentially more powerful force than any of the unwise entities that are also buying a lot of compute.

“I think for me, the most promising direction is this idea of the coalition of aligned AIS that are wise, you know, that are are kind of bodhisattva minds who would form a potentially more powerful force than any of the unwise entities that are also buying a lot of compute.”
Speaker
Not verified from transcript
Publisher
The Cognitive Revolution

18 / belief

I think, I think the, you know, a lot of my work in, in the last year that wasn't Aria has been on system prompts, which is not public yet.

“I think, I think the, you know, a lot of my work in, in the last year that wasn't Aria has been on system prompts, which is not public yet.”
Speaker
Not verified from transcript
Publisher
The Cognitive Revolution

19 / belief

Yeah, moderately like I, I, I think I don't think about them a lot because I do think that what we have is adequate in the sense that with system prompting alone it, it seems possible to get over the hump of being able to trust recursive self improvement.

“Yeah, moderately like I, I, I think I don't think about them a lot because I do think that what we have is adequate in the sense that with system prompting alone it, it seems possible to get over the hump of being able to trust recursive self improvement.”
Speaker
Not verified from transcript
Publisher
The Cognitive Revolution

20 / belief

Whereas for Eliezer it's more like there are millions and millions of possible coherent volitions. And you know, we're, we happen to be in one of them and we have to make sure we stay in that one 'cause that's the one that we care about by definition.

“Whereas for Eliezer it's more like there are millions and millions of possible coherent volitions. And you know, we're, we happen to be in one of them and we have to make sure we stay in that one 'cause that's the one that we care about by definition.”
Speaker
Not verified from transcript
Publisher
The Cognitive Revolution

21 / recommendation

On the topic of whether or not it's OK to put pressure on the chain of thought, the obfuscated reward hacking paper from Open AI is canonical in my mind for why you maybe shouldn't do it.

“On the topic of whether or not it's OK to put pressure on the chain of thought, the obfuscated reward hacking paper from Open AI is canonical in my mind for why you maybe shouldn't do it.”
Speaker
Nathan Labenz
Publisher
The Cognitive Revolution

22 / prediction

They are, they are beings that are meant to be helpful, right? So there's, as I'm sure you're well aware, there's this line of thinking that's even if we get the alignment right, we might end up in a spot where we're quite unhappy because we'll hand over more and more responsibility and key decision making and ultimately kind of power to AIS because they're better at a lot of things.

“They are, they are beings that are meant to be helpful, right? So there's, as I'm sure you're well aware, there's this line of thinking that's even if we get the alignment right, we might end up in a spot where we're quite unhappy because we'll hand over more and more responsibility and key decision making and ultimately kind of power to AIS because they're better at a lot of things.”
Speaker
Nathan Labenz
Publisher
The Cognitive Revolution

23 / evaluation

In today's world, one of the reasons I can't send my AIS out to do all my stuff for me is that humans are pretty clever about tricking and ripping off the AIS, so I'm not sure how we avoid a situation.

“In today's world, one of the reasons I can't send my AIS out to do all my stuff for me is that humans are pretty clever about tricking and ripping off the AIS, so I'm not sure how we avoid a situation.”
Speaker
Nathan Labenz
Publisher
The Cognitive Revolution
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