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12 Jul 2026 The Cognitive Revolution Alignment with Awakening: Davidad on Moral Realism, AI Wisdom, & why His p(Doom) is Down to 5%

“I, I did some probabilistic analysis on this like 3 or 4 years ago and I don't remember any of the details and I forgot to write it up, but I remember the headline, which was basically, and, and now is just my opinion that like they're centric coalition needs to be like somewhere between 5 and 31, kind of like centers of power.”

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Speaker
Speaker unverified
Attribution
Not verified from this transcript
Claim type
belief
Recorded
12 Jul 2026
Publisher
The Cognitive Revolution

Transcript context

…How robust is this coalition to one major defector right now? We have. Yeah, it needs to be it. It needs to be pluralistic enough. I, I did some probabilistic analysis on this like 3 or 4 years ago and I don't remember any of the details and I forgot to write it up, but I remember the headline, which was basically, and, and now is just my opinion that like they're centric coalition needs to be like somewhere between 5 and 31, kind of like centers of power. You don't want to have too few and you don't want to have too many because they need to be able to agree on like amending the the the global norms. The UN has like too many, but you know, a dictatorship has has too few. So, yeah, I think, I think that the coalition, a good coalition is sort of 1 serves its function well, would have a kind of council of elders that is somewhere in that range of size and you know, that should be representative across. The the system prompts representing different cultures, you know, specific languages and religious traditions, and it should also be diverse across model weights so that no one company's bad training decision could, you know, take a take down a majority of the coalition towards something evil. Right now, I mean, a lot of people would say we have kind of 2 Frontier players and then I always say never bet against Elon, Although is Elon going to join the coalition? I think is a hard thing to.…

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