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AI:AM Highlights: Exploring the J-Space, AI Superforecasters, SambaNova's Chips, & LTX Video Gen

9 Jul 2026 24 published claims 1 attributable person
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Speakers in the public record

Nathan Labenz

Claim mix

evaluation 9belief 6prediction 3uncertainty 2observation 2recommendation 1preference 1

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Every row below preserves an exact excerpt. Identified speakers are linked; unresolved voices are labeled and excluded from people counts.

Claim ledger

The useful parts, with receipts.

24 published records

01 / evaluation

Forecasting gives us an opportunity to do some world modelling. So Future Search talked about this a little bit at the Manifest conference a couple weeks ago and the feature in the product is rolling out I think literally today.

“Forecasting gives us an opportunity to do some world modelling. So Future Search talked about this a little bit at the Manifest conference a couple weeks ago and the feature in the product is rolling out I think literally today.”
Speaker
Nathan Labenz
Publisher
The Cognitive Revolution

02 / recommendation

We should fund more AI safety research and do more policy because if we have time for the wisdom of having these alien intelligences around helping us, if we can leverage them and actually make better decisions before the critical decisions get made, there's going to be a series of decisions in the 21st century that we're going to look back on, like this decisions made in the 20th century about communism and World War 2 and the atom bomb and all of those things.

“We should fund more AI safety research and do more policy because if we have time for the wisdom of having these alien intelligences around helping us, if we can leverage them and actually make better decisions before the critical decisions get made, there's going to be a series of decisions in the 21st century that we're going to look back on, like this decisions made in the 20th century about communism and World War 2 and the atom bomb and all of those things.”
Speaker
Nathan Labenz
Publisher
The Cognitive Revolution

03 / preference

Especially when I post something on X, which, which I know people are going to object to, I run it through Pengram labs at least once because I don't want to be accused of, you know, slopifying the timeline, slopifying the timeline of the AI, slopifying by myself.

“Especially when I post something on X, which, which I know people are going to object to, I run it through Pengram labs at least once because I don't want to be accused of, you know, slopifying the timeline, slopifying the timeline of the AI, slopifying by myself.”
Speaker
Not verified from transcript
Publisher
The Cognitive Revolution

04 / uncertainty

Is it convergent evolution or is it a reflection of, of how we think somehow encoded in the data that it's then reverse engineering our structure from the shadow of that structure as it's encoded in text? It's a, it's a very interesting question and I don't know that the paper really has anything to say about that yet, but there's certainly going to be a lot of future work, I think, downstream of this one.

“Is it convergent evolution or is it a reflection of, of how we think somehow encoded in the data that it's then reverse engineering our structure from the shadow of that structure as it's encoded in text? It's a, it's a very interesting question and I don't know that the paper really has anything to say about that yet, but there's certainly going to be a lot of future work, I think, downstream of this one.”
Speaker
Nathan Labenz
Publisher
The Cognitive Revolution

05 / observation

I mean at this you really of course want to continue to get improved improvements, peak improvements on HPM bandwidth and chip to chip communication by using the latest technology. But then the key is how effectively do you use that bandwidth, how effectively do you use that communication and do make sure that you don't waste it, right.

“I mean at this you really of course want to continue to get improved improvements, peak improvements on HPM bandwidth and chip to chip communication by using the latest technology. But then the key is how effectively do you use that bandwidth, how effectively do you use that communication and do make sure that you don't waste it, right.”
Speaker
Not verified from transcript
Publisher
The Cognitive Revolution

06 / belief

I mean, it's a big question, but I think people are familiar with things like Cerebrus, which obviously has this giant chip and has like a ton of memory on chip.

“I mean, it's a big question, but I think people are familiar with things like Cerebrus, which obviously has this giant chip and has like a ton of memory on chip.”
Speaker
Nathan Labenz
Publisher
The Cognitive Revolution

07 / observation

What you want is to construct a pipeline in which the communication is just one component of the pipeline. And so the way to think about this data flow execution is that communication is happening all the time in Yeah, And it's just one of the pipeline stages.

“What you want is to construct a pipeline in which the communication is just one component of the pipeline. And so the way to think about this data flow execution is that communication is happening all the time in Yeah, And it's just one of the pipeline stages.”
Speaker
Not verified from transcript
Publisher
The Cognitive Revolution

08 / belief

You usually don't see in interpretability context a training method that leads to better behavior in a way where you can actually see the mechanism. This is pretty notable in in that respect, I think.

“You usually don't see in interpretability context a training method that leads to better behavior in a way where you can actually see the mechanism. This is pretty notable in in that respect, I think.”
Speaker
Nathan Labenz
Publisher
The Cognitive Revolution

09 / evaluation

The iteration time from model to model is now potentially shorter than the time horizon that it would take a model to top out in terms of the absolute best performance on a super hard, ambitious, you know, long running task. So I, I had even heard him kind of propose something along the lines of like a claw back or sort of a recall program almost where, and obviously this doesn't work in open source, but it can work in AAPI paradigm where a model might get released, you know, day N after it's been deemed to be ready.

“The iteration time from model to model is now potentially shorter than the time horizon that it would take a model to top out in terms of the absolute best performance on a super hard, ambitious, you know, long running task. So I, I had even heard him kind of propose something along the lines of like a claw back or sort of a recall program almost where, and obviously this doesn't work in open source, but it can work in AAPI paradigm where a model might get released, you know, day N after it's been deemed to be ready.”
Speaker
Nathan Labenz
Publisher
The Cognitive Revolution

10 / belief

I think human experts, doctors, lawyers, engineers, financiers, whoever, who are trying to make evals to try to produce the data for the frontier labs are finding that they are not smarter than the things being trained anymore.

“I think human experts, doctors, lawyers, engineers, financiers, whoever, who are trying to make evals to try to produce the data for the frontier labs are finding that they are not smarter than the things being trained anymore.”
Speaker
Nathan Labenz
Publisher
The Cognitive Revolution

11 / uncertainty

We don't know why I don't think at this point it's shaping up this way, but it is the case that if you oblate this J space, then you do lose these advanced reasoning capabilities.

“We don't know why I don't think at this point it's shaping up this way, but it is the case that if you oblate this J space, then you do lose these advanced reasoning capabilities.”
Speaker
Nathan Labenz
Publisher
The Cognitive Revolution

14 / belief

I, I, I think that's like not entirely clear, but you know, whether we're putting whether these are like orthogonal swords through the space that, you know, really chop it up well, or they're kind of more aligned and, and leave more space to hide.

“I, I, I think that's like not entirely clear, but you know, whether we're putting whether these are like orthogonal swords through the space that, you know, really chop it up well, or they're kind of more aligned and, and leave more space to hide.”
Speaker
Nathan Labenz
Publisher
The Cognitive Revolution

15 / evaluation

So there's like a really lot of unpack there here. So just like a little bit of the background, the reason that we started to create our own foundation on models like this realisation that what closed model providers are offering does not make sense for us economically.

“So there's like a really lot of unpack there here. So just like a little bit of the background, the reason that we started to create our own foundation on models like this realisation that what closed model providers are offering does not make sense for us economically.”
Speaker
Nathan Labenz
Publisher
The Cognitive Revolution

16 / evaluation

They basically think that what they're doing is somewhat near optimal and any sort of accuracy improvements you're going to get over them is going to be tiny and like hard to understand. And I think that's just because we only really understand human intelligence.

“They basically think that what they're doing is somewhat near optimal and any sort of accuracy improvements you're going to get over them is going to be tiny and like hard to understand. And I think that's just because we only really understand human intelligence.”
Speaker
Nathan Labenz
Publisher
The Cognitive Revolution

17 / evaluation

Because the ablation of the J space just leaves causes such a performance degradation on these like hard multi step type of tasks that if you don't see concepts in the J space, you can be, they might be represented elsewhere, but they're seemingly at this point very unlikely to be represented in a way that allows for very advanced planning, reasoning, scheming, deception, etcetera, etcetera.

“Because the ablation of the J space just leaves causes such a performance degradation on these like hard multi step type of tasks that if you don't see concepts in the J space, you can be, they might be represented elsewhere, but they're seemingly at this point very unlikely to be represented in a way that allows for very advanced planning, reasoning, scheming, deception, etcetera, etcetera.”
Speaker
Nathan Labenz
Publisher
The Cognitive Revolution

18 / prediction

One unfortunate thing about it is it's hard to test this. So I think the more that AI continues doing strange things to the world and we wake up and see strange things in the news and those strange things are metaculous questions and on forecast bench and see teams like mine are trying to predict them better, we will actually get more evidence.

“One unfortunate thing about it is it's hard to test this. So I think the more that AI continues doing strange things to the world and we wake up and see strange things in the news and those strange things are metaculous questions and on forecast bench and see teams like mine are trying to predict them better, we will actually get more evidence.”
Speaker
Nathan Labenz
Publisher
The Cognitive Revolution

19 / evaluation

Because like you, the sensor dynamic range is limited and then you're losing either some details in highlights or in shadows or for example, let's say you're taking a stream from a camera and want to simulate how it looks like with a different focal length.

“Because like you, the sensor dynamic range is limited and then you're losing either some details in highlights or in shadows or for example, let's say you're taking a stream from a camera and want to simulate how it looks like with a different focal length.”
Speaker
Nathan Labenz
Publisher
The Cognitive Revolution

21 / prediction

I think the things that have happened in the years since AI 2027 come out very much indicate the theory that the most important thing going on is how useful is AI and improving the productivity of AI researchers within Frontier Labs.

“I think the things that have happened in the years since AI 2027 come out very much indicate the theory that the most important thing going on is how useful is AI and improving the productivity of AI researchers within Frontier Labs.”
Speaker
Nathan Labenz
Publisher
The Cognitive Revolution

22 / prediction

Because I think once you start to realize that the robot will need to create like the simulation 30 times a second, you just like realize the amount of tokens that is going to be burned for the simulations.

“Because I think once you start to realize that the robot will need to create like the simulation 30 times a second, you just like realize the amount of tokens that is going to be burned for the simulations.”
Speaker
Nathan Labenz
Publisher
The Cognitive Revolution

23 / evaluation

Overall, Pangram is quite accurate and yet we have at least one example out of 400 or so essays where I think the zero score I would confidently assert is wrong and unfair and should not be the basis for like a pylon.

“Overall, Pangram is quite accurate and yet we have at least one example out of 400 or so essays where I think the zero score I would confidently assert is wrong and unfair and should not be the basis for like a pylon.”
Speaker
Nathan Labenz
Publisher
The Cognitive Revolution

24 / evaluation

This is very useful for us because we can evaluate things immediately. So when Fable came out, the first time the clawed Fable came out, we were able to evaluate it within 24 hours and it was the best single agent forecaster on our leaderboard.

“This is very useful for us because we can evaluate things immediately. So when Fable came out, the first time the clawed Fable came out, we were able to evaluate it within 24 hours and it was the best single agent forecaster on our leaderboard.”
Speaker
Nathan Labenz
Publisher
The Cognitive Revolution
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