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Nvidia Part III: The Dawn of the AI Era (2022-2023)

6 Sept 2023 56 published claims 2 attributable people

Speakers in the public record

Claim mix

belief 32evaluation 10commitment 5uncertainty 4observation 3prediction 1preference 1

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Every row below preserves an exact excerpt. Identified speakers are linked; unresolved voices are labeled and excluded from people counts.

Claim ledger

The useful parts, with receipts.

56 published records

01 / evaluation

The way that they did it, and what completely changed the fortunes of the Internet of Google, of Facebook, and certainly of Nvidia, was they actually used old algorithms, a branch of computer science and artificial intelligence called neural networks, specifically convolutional neural networks, which had been around since the 60s.

“The way that they did it, and what completely changed the fortunes of the Internet of Google, of Facebook, and certainly of Nvidia, was they actually used old algorithms, a branch of computer science and artificial intelligence called neural networks, specifically convolutional neural networks, which had been around since the 60s.”
Speaker
David Rosenthal
Publisher
Acquired

03 / belief

Then I believe also in September of 2022 last year, the Biden administration announced pretty sweeping regulations and bans on sales of advanced computing infrastructure.

“Then I believe also in September of 2022 last year, the Biden administration announced pretty sweeping regulations and bans on sales of advanced computing infrastructure.”
Speaker
David Rosenthal
Publisher
Acquired

05 / belief

I think two things here. One, I really do believe what we were talking about a minute ago that Nvidia is not just a hardware company, they’re not just a chips company.

“I think two things here. One, I really do believe what we were talking about a minute ago that Nvidia is not just a hardware company, they’re not just a chips company.”
Speaker
David Rosenthal
Publisher
Acquired

06 / belief

I suspect a lot of inference will get done on the Edge. You think about the insane amount of compute that’s walking around in our pockets that is not fully leveraged right now.

“I suspect a lot of inference will get done on the Edge. You think about the insane amount of compute that’s walking around in our pockets that is not fully leveraged right now.”
Speaker
Ben Gilbert
Publisher
Acquired

10 / belief

I think the bottom line here is it’s nearly impossible to compete with them head-on, and if anybody’s going to unseat Nvidia in the future of AI and accelerated computing, it’s either going to be from some unknown flank attack that they don’t see or the future will turn out to just not be accelerated computing in AI, which seems very unlikely.

“I think the bottom line here is it’s nearly impossible to compete with them head-on, and if anybody’s going to unseat Nvidia in the future of AI and accelerated computing, it’s either going to be from some unknown flank attack that they don’t see or the future will turn out to just not be accelerated computing in AI, which seems very unlikely.”
Speaker
Ben Gilbert
Publisher
Acquired

11 / belief

I don’t feel confident enough to pound the table on this, but given the nature of how the company started, how long they’ve been around, and the fact that they also have the market leading product in a totally different business in graphics, which is both consumers but also professional graphics, I think that probably does lend some brand power to them, especially when the CIO and the C-suite at McDonald’s is making a buying decision here.

“I don’t feel confident enough to pound the table on this, but given the nature of how the company started, how long they’ve been around, and the fact that they also have the market leading product in a totally different business in graphics, which is both consumers but also professional graphics, I think that probably does lend some brand power to them, especially when the CIO and the C-suite at McDonald’s is making a buying decision here.”
Speaker
David Rosenthal
Publisher
Acquired

13 / belief

I think, again, we didn’t talk to Colette, Nvidia’s CFO, about this, but I strongly suspect if I were them I would be happy to trade some of this growth margin right now for increased throughput on sales.

“I think, again, we didn’t talk to Colette, Nvidia’s CFO, about this, but I strongly suspect if I were them I would be happy to trade some of this growth margin right now for increased throughput on sales.”
Speaker
David Rosenthal
Publisher
Acquired

16 / belief

For most companies, I would say that if they were trading at this very high multiple and they just experienced this tremendous real growth in revenue and operating profit, that spike to the system when it goes away will irreparably harm the company.

“For most companies, I would say that if they were trading at this very high multiple and they just experienced this tremendous real growth in revenue and operating profit, that spike to the system when it goes away will irreparably harm the company.”
Speaker
Ben Gilbert
Publisher
Acquired

17 / commitment

If you want to be notified every time we drop a new episode and you want to make sure you don’t miss it, and you want little hints to play a guessing game at our next episode, or you want follow ups from our previous episode in case we learn from listeners, hey, here’s a little piece of information that we wanted to pass along. We will exclusively be dropping those in the email, acquired.

“If you want to be notified every time we drop a new episode and you want to make sure you don’t miss it, and you want little hints to play a guessing game at our next episode, or you want follow ups from our previous episode in case we learn from listeners, hey, here’s a little piece of information that we wanted to pass along. We will exclusively be dropping those in the email, acquired.”
Speaker
Ben Gilbert
Publisher
Acquired

20 / commitment

Nvidia and Jensen put a flag in the ground several years ago where they said, we are going to rearchitect the data center, and all the existing data center hardware and compute providers had strong incentives not to do that.

“Nvidia and Jensen put a flag in the ground several years ago where they said, we are going to rearchitect the data center, and all the existing data center hardware and compute providers had strong incentives not to do that.”
Speaker
David Rosenthal
Publisher
Acquired

23 / belief

Then I think there’s the slightly more speculative stuff, but you can actually see it now, of like that gaming demo that I mentioned recently from Nvidia, of like, oh you’re talking to a non playable character that wasn’t scripted.

“Then I think there’s the slightly more speculative stuff, but you can actually see it now, of like that gaming demo that I mentioned recently from Nvidia, of like, oh you’re talking to a non playable character that wasn’t scripted.”
Speaker
David Rosenthal
Publisher
Acquired

24 / belief

You just illustrated (I think) bear case number one, which is literally everybody else in the technology ecosystem is now aligned and incentivized to say, I want to take a piece of Nvidia’s pie.

“You just illustrated (I think) bear case number one, which is literally everybody else in the technology ecosystem is now aligned and incentivized to say, I want to take a piece of Nvidia’s pie.”
Speaker
David Rosenthal
Publisher
Acquired

25 / uncertainty

I think the argument here would just be Nvidia’s culture and their six month shipping cycle that, clearly they had in the past and they didn’t have for a while and now they have again, I don’t know.

“I think the argument here would just be Nvidia’s culture and their six month shipping cycle that, clearly they had in the past and they didn’t have for a while and now they have again, I don’t know.”
Speaker
David Rosenthal
Publisher
Acquired

26 / observation

There’s this idea that the very structure of language and the way to interpret knowledge is actually embedded in the training data itself rather than requiring labeling.

“There’s this idea that the very structure of language and the way to interpret knowledge is actually embedded in the training data itself rather than requiring labeling.”
Speaker
Ben Gilbert
Publisher
Acquired

27 / commitment

To quote an amazing Wired article from the time by Cade Metz that we will link to in our sources, “The trouble was, so many of the people most qualified to solve all these AI problems were already working for Google and Facebook, and no one at the dinner was quite sure that these thinkers could be lured to a new startup, even if Musk and Altman were behind it.

“To quote an amazing Wired article from the time by Cade Metz that we will link to in our sources, “The trouble was, so many of the people most qualified to solve all these AI problems were already working for Google and Facebook, and no one at the dinner was quite sure that these thinkers could be lured to a new startup, even if Musk and Altman were behind it.”
Speaker
David Rosenthal
Publisher
Acquired

36 / belief

The way that they calculated this was that they were going to serve customers who provided $100 trillion worth of industry, and they were going to capture just 1% of it. And there was some stuff on the slide that was fairly speculative, like autonomous vehicles, the omniverse, and I think robotics were a big part of it.

“The way that they calculated this was that they were going to serve customers who provided $100 trillion worth of industry, and they were going to capture just 1% of it. And there was some stuff on the slide that was fairly speculative, like autonomous vehicles, the omniverse, and I think robotics were a big part of it.”
Speaker
David Rosenthal
Publisher
Acquired

38 / commitment

Then the fourth and final line of code in our example is we are going to take that five that has just been computed and is currently held temporarily in a register on the CPU, and we are going to write that back to an address in memory.

“Then the fourth and final line of code in our example is we are going to take that five that has just been computed and is currently held temporarily in a register on the CPU, and we are going to write that back to an address in memory.”
Speaker
Ben Gilbert
Publisher
Acquired

43 / belief

Nvidia thinks of themselves as, and I believe is, a platform company, especially this week after the blowout earnings, everything that happened this quarter, the stock and whatnot.

“Nvidia thinks of themselves as, and I believe is, a platform company, especially this week after the blowout earnings, everything that happened this quarter, the stock and whatnot.”
Speaker
David Rosenthal
Publisher
Acquired

45 / belief

The combination of these three things is (I think) the most perfect example we’ve ever covered on this show of the old saying about luck being what happens when preparation meets opportunity for Nvidia here.

“The combination of these three things is (I think) the most perfect example we’ve ever covered on this show of the old saying about luck being what happens when preparation meets opportunity for Nvidia here.”
Speaker
David Rosenthal
Publisher
Acquired

47 / prediction

I think what he’s saying is that AI compute will be added onto everything and the amount of compute required for doing that will dwarf what’s happening in general-purpose compute.

“I think what he’s saying is that AI compute will be added onto everything and the amount of compute required for doing that will dwarf what’s happening in general-purpose compute.”
Speaker
David Rosenthal
Publisher
Acquired

48 / evaluation

Still basically there, including forcing myself to try to use it a bunch in preparation for this episode. But also as we talk to more people, I think I’ve realized that David Rosenthal’s use case doesn’t really matter here at all because as a business, we are such a hyper specialized, unique little unicorn thing, where accuracy and the depth of the work and thought that we ourselves put into episodes is the paramount thing.

“Still basically there, including forcing myself to try to use it a bunch in preparation for this episode. But also as we talk to more people, I think I’ve realized that David Rosenthal’s use case doesn’t really matter here at all because as a business, we are such a hyper specialized, unique little unicorn thing, where accuracy and the depth of the work and thought that we ourselves put into episodes is the paramount thing.”
Speaker
David Rosenthal
Publisher
Acquired

49 / preference

Sometimes, the cloud providers have to offer me an A100 or an H100 because my code is way too complicated to ever re-architect for whatever accelerated computing devices they’re offering me that’s first party and cheaper for them.

“Sometimes, the cloud providers have to offer me an A100 or an H100 because my code is way too complicated to ever re-architect for whatever accelerated computing devices they’re offering me that’s first party and cheaper for them.”
Speaker
Ben Gilbert
Publisher
Acquired

51 / evaluation

I think Nvidia totally gets this because part of this, as I was alluding to is Covid-related, but we talked way back in part I about how Nvidia ended up to save the company moving to a six month shipping cycle for their graphics cards when their competitors were on a one- to two-year shipping cycle, that persisted for several years, and then they relaxed back to a annual shipping cycle.

“I think Nvidia totally gets this because part of this, as I was alluding to is Covid-related, but we talked way back in part I about how Nvidia ended up to save the company moving to a six month shipping cycle for their graphics cards when their competitors were on a one- to two-year shipping cycle, that persisted for several years, and then they relaxed back to a annual shipping cycle.”
Speaker
David Rosenthal
Publisher
Acquired

54 / evaluation

I think in the current state of things, it’s even more favorable to Nvidia than iOS versus Android, because Nvidia has had first dozens and then hundreds and now thousands of engineers working on CUDA for 16 years.

“I think in the current state of things, it’s even more favorable to Nvidia than iOS versus Android, because Nvidia has had first dozens and then hundreds and now thousands of engineers working on CUDA for 16 years.”
Speaker
David Rosenthal
Publisher
Acquired

55 / evaluation

I don’t know if you have to use the TensorFlow framework, which has been waning in popularity relative to PyTorch, but it’s certainly not an industry standard to use TPUs the way that it is to use Nvidia’s hardware.

“I don’t know if you have to use the TensorFlow framework, which has been waning in popularity relative to PyTorch, but it’s certainly not an industry standard to use TPUs the way that it is to use Nvidia’s hardware.”
Speaker
Ben Gilbert
Publisher
Acquired

56 / evaluation

I don’t think there’s anything that Nvidia does where there’s another company that’s actively choosing not to do that, because any company would want to be Nvidia right now.

“I don’t think there’s anything that Nvidia does where there’s another company that’s actively choosing not to do that, because any company would want to be Nvidia right now.”
Speaker
Ben Gilbert
Publisher
Acquired
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