Ben Gilbert: belief

Transcript context

…And by a wide margin, too, to this brand you’re not going to get fired for buying Nvidia anytime soon. This is the canonical, you got to be 10X better than Nvidia on this stuff if you’re going to convince a CIO. Even if you got the customer demand, you’d need to contract with TSMC to get the manufacturing capability of their newest cutting edge fabs to do this 2.5D COWOS lithography and packaging, which there isn’t any more of, so good luck getting that. Even if you figured out how to do that, you’d need to build software that is as good or better than CUDA. Of course, that’s going to take 10,000 person years, which would cost you not only billions and billions of dollars but all that actual time. Even if you made all these investments and lined all of this up, you’d need to go and convince the developers to actually start using your thing instead of CUDA. Well, Nvidia also wouldn’t be standing still, so you’d have to do all of this in record time to catch up to them and surpass whatever additional capabilities they developed since you started this effort. I think the bottom line here is it’s nearly impossible to compete with them head-on, and if anybody’s going to unseat Nvidia in the future of AI and accelerated computing, it’s either going to be from some unknown flank attack that they don’t see or the future will turn out to just not be accelerated computing in AI, which seems very unlikely. When you put it that way, I think the conclusion that we can come to is that Marc Andreessen was right, in what year was this that we were talking about on?…

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