David Rosenthal: belief

Transcript context

…Except that I know you’re not going to start 18 months ago. On the other hand, we have decades and decades of foundational research to cover. When I was starting my research, I went to the natural first place which was our old episodes from April 2022. I was listening to them and I got to the end of the second one. I had forgotten about this. I think Jensen maybe wishes we all had forgotten about this in one of NVIDIA’s earning slides in 2021. They put up their total addressable market and they said they had a $1 trillion TAM. The way that they calculated this was that they were going to serve customers who provided $100 trillion worth of industry, and they were going to capture just 1% of it. And there was some stuff on the slide that was fairly speculative, like autonomous vehicles, the omniverse, and I think robotics were a big part of it. And the argument is basically like, well cars plus factories plus all these things added together is $100 trillion and we can just take 1% of that because surely their compute will amount to 1% of that, which I’m not arguing is wrong, but it is a very blunt way to analyze that market.…

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