Public evidence record
Published podcast speaker
Claim ledger
7 transcript-backed records
01 / uncertainty
“I think one first point worth making is I don't know if alignment makes the situation worse rather than better.”
02 / uncertainty
“I mean, it depends a little bit what you mean by succeed. But if you, say, get explanations that are great and accurately reflect reality and work for all of these applications that we’re imagining or that we are optimistic about, like kind of the best case success, I don’t know, like 1020 percent something.”
03 / uncertainty
“You could ask what’s the shortest program, which if you run it on a million h 100s connected in a nice network with a hospitable environment will eventually go to the stars. But that seems like it’s probably on the order of tens of thousands of bytes or I don’t know if I had to guess the median, I’d guess 10,000 bytes.”
04 / uncertainty
“Yeah, I mean, like, for example, if you imagine what the best thing is, it would almost certainly involve just like simulating every possible universe. It might be in modular moral constraints, which I don’t know if you want to include like so that would be very slow.”
05 / uncertainty
“Like if you set aside manufacturing costs and just look at operating costs or performance trade offs, like, I don't know, more like 3 orders of magnitude or something like that, or some things that.”
06 / uncertainty
“I don’t know, it’s hundreds of symbols or something that go into the entire foundations and the entire rules of reasoning for like there’s a sort of built on top of first order logic but the rules of reasoning for first order logic are just like another hundreds of symbols or 100 lines of code or whatever.”
07 / uncertainty
“Like, I also still have a bunch of hardware investments which I need to think about, but I don’t know a lot of TSMC.”