Evidence receipt / uncertainty
Published · transcript-backedPaul Christiano: uncertainty
31 Oct 2023 Dwarkesh Podcast Paul Christiano — Preventing an AI takeover
“Like, I also still have a bunch of hardware investments which I need to think about, but I don’t know a lot of TSMC.”
Source trail
Everything needed to verify it.
- Speaker
- Paul Christiano
- Attribution
- Verified speaker
- Claim type
- uncertainty
- Recorded
- 31 Oct 2023
- Publisher
- Dwarkesh Podcast
Transcript context
…What would it look like if you. Had no conflicts of interest and no inside? Like, I also still have a bunch of hardware investments which I need to think about, but I don’t know a lot of TSMC. I have a chunk of Nvidia, although I just keep betting against Nvidia constantly since 2016 or something. I’ve been destroyed on that bet. Although AMD has also done fine. The case now is even easier, but it’s similar to the case in the old days, just a very expensive company. Given the total amount of R and D investment they’ve made, they have like, whatever, a trillion dollar valuation or something that’s like very high. So the question is, how expensive is it to make a TPU? So it actually outcompetes H 100 or something. And I’m like, wow, it’s real level, high level of incompetence if Google can’t catch up fast enough to make that trillion dollar valuation not justified. Whereas with TSMC they have a harder remote, you think?…
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