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Paul Christiano

Published podcast speaker

Claims
46
Episodes
1
Shows
1
Named items
0

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What Paul said.

6 transcript-backed records

01 / prediction

Yeah, I mean, I think amongst people you've interviewed, maybe that's like on the long end thinking it would take like a couple of years. And it depends a little bit what you mean by I think literally all human cognitive labor is probably like more like weeks or months or something like that.

“Yeah, I mean, I think amongst people you've interviewed, maybe that's like on the long end thinking it would take like a couple of years. And it depends a little bit what you mean by I think literally all human cognitive labor is probably like more like weeks or months or something like that.”
Speaker
Paul Christiano
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

03 / prediction

I think you probably get like, by 2040, like, I don't know, 3 orders of magnitude of effective training compute improvement or like, a good chunk of effective training compute improvement, 4 orders of magnitude.

“I think you probably get like, by 2040, like, I don't know, 3 orders of magnitude of effective training compute improvement or like, a good chunk of effective training compute improvement, 4 orders of magnitude.”
Speaker
Paul Christiano
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

04 / prediction

The good story is you develop methods that address a bunch of existing problems because they just are more principled ways to train AI systems that work better, people adopt them and then we are no longer worried about eg reward hacking or deceptive alignment.

“The good story is you develop methods that address a bunch of existing problems because they just are more principled ways to train AI systems that work better, people adopt them and then we are no longer worried about eg reward hacking or deceptive alignment.”
Speaker
Paul Christiano
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

05 / prediction

First things would go badly without it. But I think if you ask, why don't we turn off the AI, my best guess is because there are a bunch of other AIS running around 2D or lunch.

“First things would go badly without it. But I think if you ask, why don't we turn off the AI, my best guess is because there are a bunch of other AIS running around 2D or lunch.”
Speaker
Paul Christiano
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

06 / prediction

I think once you have systems actually doing jobs, the extrapolation gets easier because you're not moving from a subjective impression of a chat to automating all R and D, you're moving from automating this job to automating that job or whatever.

“I think once you have systems actually doing jobs, the extrapolation gets easier because you're not moving from a subjective impression of a chat to automating all R and D, you're moving from automating this job to automating that job or whatever.”
Speaker
Paul Christiano
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast
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