Paul Christiano: prediction

Transcript context

…Okay, so maybe instead of speaking in terms of years, we should say, but by the way, it's interesting that you think the distance between can take all human cognitive labor to Dyson sphere is two years. It seems like we should talk about that at some point. Presumably it's like intelligence explosion stuff. Yeah, I mean, I think amongst people you've interviewed, maybe that's like on the long end thinking it would take like a couple of years. And it depends a little bit what you mean by I think literally all human cognitive labor is probably like more like weeks or months or something like that. That's kind of deep into the singularity. But yeah, there's a point where AI wages are high relative to human wages, which I think is well before can do literally everything human can do. Sounds good, but before we get to that, the intelligence explosion stuff on the 4 years. So instead of 4 years, maybe we can say there's going to be maybe two more scale ups in 4 years. Like GPT 4 to GPT five to GPT six, and let's say each one is ten x bigger. So what is GPT 4 like two e 25 flops?…

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