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Elon Musk

Published podcast speaker

Claims
86
Episodes
3
Shows
2
Named items
1

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other / recommends

Shanghai and Beijing

“I mean, I recommend somebody just go to Shanghai and Beijing, look at the buildings and go to take the train from Beijing to Xian, where you have the terracotta warriors.”

Lex Fridman Podcast · 9 Nov 2023

Evidence receipt · Source ↗

Claim ledger

What Elon said.

86 transcript-backed records

01 / evaluation

You can drill down to a level further. It’s the vanes and blades in the turbines that are the limiting factor because it’s a very specialized process to cast the blades and vanes in the turbines, assuming you’re using gas power.

“You can drill down to a level further. It’s the vanes and blades in the turbines that are the limiting factor because it’s a very specialized process to cast the blades and vanes in the turbines, assuming you’re using gas power.”
Speaker
Elon Musk
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

04 / belief

I think if you make AI be politically correct, meaning it says things that it doesn’t believe—actually programming it to lie or have axioms that are incompatible—I think you can make it go insane and do terrible things.

“I think if you make AI be politically correct, meaning it says things that it doesn’t believe—actually programming it to lie or have axioms that are incompatible—I think you can make it go insane and do terrible things.”
Speaker
Elon Musk
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

05 / belief

I think arguably most consciousness, or most intelligence—certainly consciousness is more of a debatable thing… The vast majority of intelligence in the future will be AI.

“I think arguably most consciousness, or most intelligence—certainly consciousness is more of a debatable thing… The vast majority of intelligence in the future will be AI.”
Speaker
Elon Musk
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

09 / belief

The ideas travel back and forth with the people. So I think you sort of hit the hardware wall and then whichever company can scale hardware the fastest will be the leader.

“The ideas travel back and forth with the people. So I think you sort of hit the hardware wall and then whichever company can scale hardware the fastest will be the leader.”
Speaker
Elon Musk
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

13 / observation

” The point is, you’ve got to build the fab and you’ve got to start production, then you’ve got to climb the yield curve and reach volume production at high yield.

“” The point is, you’ve got to build the fab and you’ve got to start production, then you’ve got to climb the yield curve and reach volume production at high yield.”
Speaker
Elon Musk
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

14 / belief

I think maybe the biggest danger of AI and robotics going wrong is government. People who are opposed to corporations or worried about corporations should really worry the most about government.

“I think maybe the biggest danger of AI and robotics going wrong is government. People who are opposed to corporations or worried about corporations should really worry the most about government.”
Speaker
Elon Musk
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

16 / evaluation

For video, you’ve got to do a tremendous amount of compression and you’ve got to do the compression just right. You’ve got to ignore the things that don’t matter.

“For video, you’ve got to do a tremendous amount of compression and you’ve got to do the compression just right. You’ve got to ignore the things that don’t matter.”
Speaker
Elon Musk
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

17 / belief

You can’t have understanding without intelligence and, I think, without consciousness. So in order to understand the universe, you have to expand the scale and probably the scope of intelligence, because there are different types of intelligence.

“You can’t have understanding without intelligence and, I think, without consciousness. So in order to understand the universe, you have to expand the scale and probably the scope of intelligence, because there are different types of intelligence.”
Speaker
Elon Musk
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

20 / uncertainty

I don’t know about all governments. It’s difficult to predict. I can say what’s the endpoint, or what is many years in the future, but it’s difficult to predict the path along that way.

“I don’t know about all governments. It’s difficult to predict. I can say what’s the endpoint, or what is many years in the future, but it’s difficult to predict the path along that way.”
Speaker
Elon Musk
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

28 / belief

However, if AI can simply take whatever is given to the outsourced customer service company that they already use and do customer service using the apps that they already use, then you can make tremendous headway in customer service, which is, I think, 1% of the world economy or something like that.

“However, if AI can simply take whatever is given to the outsourced customer service company that they already use and do customer service using the apps that they already use, then you can make tremendous headway in customer service, which is, I think, 1% of the world economy or something like that.”
Speaker
Elon Musk
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

33 / prediction

To reach a large volume in, say, 36 months, to match the rocket payload to orbit… If we’re doing a million tons to orbit in, let’s say three or four years from now, something like that… We’re doing 100 kilowatts per ton. So that means we need at least 100 gigawatts per year of solar.

“To reach a large volume in, say, 36 months, to match the rocket payload to orbit… If we’re doing a million tons to orbit in, let’s say three or four years from now, something like that… We’re doing 100 kilowatts per ton. So that means we need at least 100 gigawatts per year of solar.”
Speaker
Elon Musk
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

40 / commitment

Now we don’t know what to do…” I’m pretty sure I know the path. It’s just a question of how quickly we go down that path, because it’s pretty much the Tesla path.

“Now we don’t know what to do…” I’m pretty sure I know the path. It’s just a question of how quickly we go down that path, because it’s pretty much the Tesla path.”
Speaker
Elon Musk
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

41 / prediction

It’s not just that there’s four times the population, but the amount of work that people put in is higher. So you can try to rearrange the humans, but you’re still one quarter of the—assuming that productivity is the same, which I think actually it might not be, I think China might have an advantage on productivity per person—we will do one quarter of the amount of things as China.

“It’s not just that there’s four times the population, but the amount of work that people put in is higher. So you can try to rearrange the humans, but you’re still one quarter of the—assuming that productivity is the same, which I think actually it might not be, I think China might have an advantage on productivity per person—we will do one quarter of the amount of things as China.”
Speaker
Elon Musk
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

43 / belief

If it’s extremely safe, and you can have superhuman abilities, and let’s say you can upload your memories, so you wouldn’t lose memories, then I think probably a lot of people would choose to have it.

“If it’s extremely safe, and you can have superhuman abilities, and let’s say you can upload your memories, so you wouldn’t lose memories, then I think probably a lot of people would choose to have it.”
Speaker
Elon Musk
Publisher
Lex Fridman Podcast

44 / uncertainty

If there’s a single word that is able to convey something that would normally require, I don’t know, 10 simple words, then you’ve got maybe a 10X compression on your hands.

“If there’s a single word that is able to convey something that would normally require, I don’t know, 10 simple words, then you’ve got maybe a 10X compression on your hands.”
Speaker
Elon Musk
Publisher
Lex Fridman Podcast

45 / uncertainty

Why do anything at all? And so, if our simple limbic system provides a source of will to do something, that then goes through our cortex, that then goes to our tertiary compute layer, then I don’t know, it might actually be that the AI, in a benign scenario, is simply trying to make the human limbic system happy.

“Why do anything at all? And so, if our simple limbic system provides a source of will to do something, that then goes through our cortex, that then goes to our tertiary compute layer, then I don’t know, it might actually be that the AI, in a benign scenario, is simply trying to make the human limbic system happy.”
Speaker
Elon Musk
Publisher
Lex Fridman Podcast

47 / prediction

I think with Tesla and the real time video coming from several million cars, ultimately tens of millions of cars with Optimus, there might be hundreds of millions of Optimus robots, maybe billions, learning a tremendous amount from the real world.

“I think with Tesla and the real time video coming from several million cars, ultimately tens of millions of cars with Optimus, there might be hundreds of millions of Optimus robots, maybe billions, learning a tremendous amount from the real world.”
Speaker
Elon Musk
Publisher
Lex Fridman Podcast

48 / evaluation

” People get a little shook by that, but it makes sense because if you’re so conservative as to never have to put anything back in, you obviously have a lot of stuff that isn’t needed.

“” People get a little shook by that, but it makes sense because if you’re so conservative as to never have to put anything back in, you obviously have a lot of stuff that isn’t needed.”
Speaker
Elon Musk
Publisher
Lex Fridman Podcast

49 / prediction

We could better align collective human will with AI if the output rate especially was dramatically increased. And I think there’s potential to increase the output rate by, I don’t know, three, maybe six, maybe more orders of magnitude.

“We could better align collective human will with AI if the output rate especially was dramatically increased. And I think there’s potential to increase the output rate by, I don’t know, three, maybe six, maybe more orders of magnitude.”
Speaker
Elon Musk
Publisher
Lex Fridman Podcast

50 / evaluation

That is insane.” But if you’ve got that kind of thing programmed in, the AI could conclude something absolutely insane like it’s better in order to avoid any possible misgendering, all humans must die, because then misgendering is not possible because there are no humans.

“That is insane.” But if you’ve got that kind of thing programmed in, the AI could conclude something absolutely insane like it’s better in order to avoid any possible misgendering, all humans must die, because then misgendering is not possible because there are no humans.”
Speaker
Elon Musk
Publisher
Lex Fridman Podcast

51 / evaluation

Well, I think people tend to take, say, an endorsement as, well, I agree with everything that person has ever done their entire life 100% wholeheartedly, and that’s not going to be true of anyone.

“Well, I think people tend to take, say, an endorsement as, well, I agree with everything that person has ever done their entire life 100% wholeheartedly, and that’s not going to be true of anyone.”
Speaker
Elon Musk
Publisher
Lex Fridman Podcast

52 / evaluation

Now, there is an argument that that’s actually a healthy thing to do, or a helpful thing to do because as you try to compress complex concepts, you’re perhaps forced to distill what is most essential in those concepts, as opposed to just all the fluff.

“Now, there is an argument that that’s actually a healthy thing to do, or a helpful thing to do because as you try to compress complex concepts, you’re perhaps forced to distill what is most essential in those concepts, as opposed to just all the fluff.”
Speaker
Elon Musk
Publisher
Lex Fridman Podcast

54 / prediction

” And you can do things where you adjust the electric field. So, even if you’ve got, say 10,000 neurons, it’s not just 10,000 pixels, because you can adjust the field between the neurons, and do them in patterns in order to have say, 10,000 electrodes, effectively give you, I don’t know, maybe like having a megapixel, or a 10 megapixel situation.

“” And you can do things where you adjust the electric field. So, even if you’ve got, say 10,000 neurons, it’s not just 10,000 pixels, because you can adjust the field between the neurons, and do them in patterns in order to have say, 10,000 electrodes, effectively give you, I don’t know, maybe like having a megapixel, or a 10 megapixel situation.”
Speaker
Elon Musk
Publisher
Lex Fridman Podcast

55 / prediction

We’ll improve the signal processing. So, even with only roughly, I don’t know, 10, 15% of the electrodes working with Noland, with our first patient, we were able to get to achieve a bit per second.

“We’ll improve the signal processing. So, even with only roughly, I don’t know, 10, 15% of the electrodes working with Noland, with our first patient, we were able to get to achieve a bit per second.”
Speaker
Elon Musk
Publisher
Lex Fridman Podcast

59 / belief

There’s a question of just how much war and there’s sort of the scope and scale of war. But to imagine that there would not be any war in the future, I think would be a very unlikely outcome.

“There’s a question of just how much war and there’s sort of the scope and scale of war. But to imagine that there would not be any war in the future, I think would be a very unlikely outcome.”
Speaker
Elon Musk
Publisher
Lex Fridman Podcast

61 / evaluation

There was a court case, which the guy who was not a cave diver and was not part of the rescue team, filed a lawsuit against me and lost and he received nothing. So in this case, it is wrong.

“There was a court case, which the guy who was not a cave diver and was not part of the rescue team, filed a lawsuit against me and lost and he received nothing. So in this case, it is wrong.”
Speaker
Elon Musk
Publisher
Lex Fridman Podcast

64 / commitment

Grok was trained on 8,000 A100’s running at peak efficiency and Grok’s going to get a lot better, by the way, we will be more than doubling our compute every couple months for the next several months.

“Grok was trained on 8,000 A100’s running at peak efficiency and Grok’s going to get a lot better, by the way, we will be more than doubling our compute every couple months for the next several months.”
Speaker
Elon Musk
Publisher
Lex Fridman Podcast

66 / uncertainty

I don’t know if this is necessarily one candidate or another candidate, but I’m generally against things that are anti-meritocratic or where there’s an attempt to suppress discussion, where even discussing a topic is not allowed.

“I don’t know if this is necessarily one candidate or another candidate, but I’m generally against things that are anti-meritocratic or where there’s an attempt to suppress discussion, where even discussing a topic is not allowed.”
Speaker
Elon Musk
Publisher
Lex Fridman Podcast

67 / belief

In general, with any given technology, you first try to make it work, and then you make it efficient. So I think we’ll find, over time, that these models get smaller, are able to produce sensible output with far less compute, far less power.

“In general, with any given technology, you first try to make it work, and then you make it efficient. So I think we’ll find, over time, that these models get smaller, are able to produce sensible output with far less compute, far less power.”
Speaker
Elon Musk
Publisher
Lex Fridman Podcast

69 / belief

I met Larry Page before he got funding for Google, or actually I guess before he got venture funding, I think he got the first like $100k from I think Bechtel Zeimer or someone.

“I met Larry Page before he got funding for Google, or actually I guess before he got venture funding, I think he got the first like $100k from I think Bechtel Zeimer or someone.”
Speaker
Elon Musk
Publisher
Lex Fridman Podcast

70 / belief

I mean, I think a possible explanation for this is evolutionary, where bad news, historically, would be potentially fatal, like there’s lion over there or there’s some other tribe that wants to kill you.

“I mean, I think a possible explanation for this is evolutionary, where bad news, historically, would be potentially fatal, like there’s lion over there or there’s some other tribe that wants to kill you.”
Speaker
Elon Musk
Publisher
Lex Fridman Podcast

76 / belief

I suspect that if we are able to go out there and explore other star systems that we… There’s a good chance we find a whole bunch of long dead one planet civilizations that never made it past their home planet.

“I suspect that if we are able to go out there and explore other star systems that we… There’s a good chance we find a whole bunch of long dead one planet civilizations that never made it past their home planet.”
Speaker
Elon Musk
Publisher
Lex Fridman Podcast

77 / preference

You got us into this mess. So generally, I think we obviously want to prioritize civilizational risks over things that are painful and tragic on a local level, but not civilizational.

“You got us into this mess. So generally, I think we obviously want to prioritize civilizational risks over things that are painful and tragic on a local level, but not civilizational.”
Speaker
Elon Musk
Publisher
Lex Fridman Podcast

78 / prediction

The thing that… The reason I proposed some sort of truce or peace a year ago was because I’ve predicted pretty much exactly what would happen, which is a lot of people dying for basically almost no changes in land and the loss of the flower of Ukrainian and Russian youth.

“The thing that… The reason I proposed some sort of truce or peace a year ago was because I’ve predicted pretty much exactly what would happen, which is a lot of people dying for basically almost no changes in land and the loss of the flower of Ukrainian and Russian youth.”
Speaker
Elon Musk
Publisher
Lex Fridman Podcast

79 / recommendation

Look, I think I would just recommend do not send the flower of Ukrainian youth to die in trenches, whether he talks to Putin or not, just don’t do that.

“Look, I think I would just recommend do not send the flower of Ukrainian youth to die in trenches, whether he talks to Putin or not, just don’t do that.”
Speaker
Elon Musk
Publisher
Lex Fridman Podcast

81 / evaluation

It’s not exactly turn the other cheek because I do think that it is appropriate for Israel to find the Hamas members and either kill them or incarcerate them.

“It’s not exactly turn the other cheek because I do think that it is appropriate for Israel to find the Hamas members and either kill them or incarcerate them.”
Speaker
Elon Musk
Publisher
Lex Fridman Podcast

82 / recommendation

They obviously did not expect to have a military victory, but they really wanted to commit the worst atrocities that they could in order to provoke the most aggressive response possible from Israel, and then leverage that aggressive response to rally Muslims worldwide for the course of Gaza and Palestine, which they have succeeded in doing. So the counterintuitive thing here, I think that the thing that I think should be done, even though it’s very difficult, is that I would recommend that Israel engage in the most conspicuous acts of kindness possible, everything, that is the actual thing that we’re taught the goal of Hamas.

“They obviously did not expect to have a military victory, but they really wanted to commit the worst atrocities that they could in order to provoke the most aggressive response possible from Israel, and then leverage that aggressive response to rally Muslims worldwide for the course of Gaza and Palestine, which they have succeeded in doing. So the counterintuitive thing here, I think that the thing that I think should be done, even though it’s very difficult, is that I would recommend that Israel engage in the most conspicuous acts of kindness possible, everything, that is the actual thing that we’re taught the goal of Hamas.”
Speaker
Elon Musk
Publisher
Lex Fridman Podcast

83 / preference

It’s- My favorite books, it’s a book on philosophy, disguises book on humor. And I would say that forms the basis of my philosophy, which is that we don’t know the meaning of life, but the more we can expand the scope and scale of consciousness, digital and biological, the more we’re able to understand what questions to ask about the answer that is the universe.

“It’s- My favorite books, it’s a book on philosophy, disguises book on humor. And I would say that forms the basis of my philosophy, which is that we don’t know the meaning of life, but the more we can expand the scope and scale of consciousness, digital and biological, the more we’re able to understand what questions to ask about the answer that is the universe.”
Speaker
Elon Musk
Publisher
Lex Fridman Podcast

84 / prediction

” And actually they saw it coming and they still could not avoid it. So at some point, if one group, one civilization or country or whatever exceeds another sort of like the United States has been the biggest kid on the block since I think around 1890 from an economic standpoint.

“” And actually they saw it coming and they still could not avoid it. So at some point, if one group, one civilization or country or whatever exceeds another sort of like the United States has been the biggest kid on the block since I think around 1890 from an economic standpoint.”
Speaker
Elon Musk
Publisher
Lex Fridman Podcast

85 / evaluation

I mean, it is a concern to me that OpenAI, I was I think, I guess oddly the prime mover behind OpenAI in the sense that it was created because of discussions that I had with Larry Page back when he and I were friends and I stayed at his house and I talked to him about AI safety, and Larry did not care about AI safety, or at least at the time he didn’t.

“I mean, it is a concern to me that OpenAI, I was I think, I guess oddly the prime mover behind OpenAI in the sense that it was created because of discussions that I had with Larry Page back when he and I were friends and I stayed at his house and I talked to him about AI safety, and Larry did not care about AI safety, or at least at the time he didn’t.”
Speaker
Elon Musk
Publisher
Lex Fridman Podcast
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