Evidence receipt / belief
Published · transcript-backedElon Musk: belief
5 Feb 2026 Dwarkesh Podcast Elon Musk — "In 36 months, the cheapest place to put AI will be space”
“The ideas travel back and forth with the people. So I think you sort of hit the hardware wall and then whichever company can scale hardware the fastest will be the leader.”
Source trail
Everything needed to verify it.
- Speaker
- Elon Musk
- Attribution
- Verified speaker
- Claim type
- belief
- Recorded
- 5 Feb 2026
- Publisher
- Dwarkesh Podcast
Transcript context
…What’s your plan to deal with that world? We’re trying to accelerate electricity production. I guess that’s maybe one of the reasons that xAI will be maybe the leader, hopefully the leader. We’ll be able to turn on more chips than other people can turn on, faster, because we’re good at hardware. Generally, the innovations from the corporations that call themselves labs, the ideas tend to flow… It’s rare to see that there’s more than about a six-month difference. The ideas travel back and forth with the people. So I think you sort of hit the hardware wall and then whichever company can scale hardware the fastest will be the leader. So I think xAI will be able to scale hardware the fastest and therefore most likely will be the leader. You joked or were self-conscious about using the “limiting factor” phrase again. But I actually think there’s something deep here. If you look at a lot of things we’ve touched on over the course of it, it’s maybe a good note to end on. If you think of a senescent, low-agency company, it would have some bottleneck and not really be doing anything about it. Marc Andreessen had the line of, “most people are willing to endure any amount of chronic pain to avoid acute pain”. It feels like a lot of the cases we’re talking about are just leaning into the acute pain, whatever it is. “Okay, we got to figure out how to work with steel, or we got to figure out how to run the chips in space.” We’ll take some near-term acute pain to actually solve the bottleneck. So that’s kind of a unifying theme.…
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