Public evidence record
Published podcast speaker
Claim ledger
19 transcript-backed records
01 / commitment
“It’s why I started back from the — I bring a micro sentiment to the thinking about causality and supply and demand.”
02 / belief
“I think, in my experience, where the greatest opportunities arise in the short run are on things where, in a way, there’s not a correct answer.”
03 / commitment
“I hope that’s true. However, though, the hallucinating in JSTOR — I will abide no insults to JSTOR.”
04 / belief
“Your argument is, in some sense, stablecoins are shadow banks, and the disintermediation of community banks or the like will create a lot of upheaval, and there will be a lot of jockeying in a world like that, and I agree.”
05 / uncertainty
“” Then we’re back to, well, would Grandma be calling the Fed for a retail stablecoin, asking, “What’s the login again?” I don’t know.”
06 / belief
“If you take secret information, confidential information, and start plugging it into these and it starts getting out, I think that would be a problem.”
07 / belief
“There is a risk of over-anticipation of productivity growth that, if equity values surge and business investment surges in AI infrastructure-type capital investment on the anticipation of the bounty that is to come, I think there’s a high danger that you encounter the over-capacity, the capacity constraint problem that we always face in the short run when you get a surge in demand.”
08 / evaluation
“You would look and say, “No, look, this is better than it used to be, but I can tell this isn’t a typewriter.”
09 / uncertainty
“Think of it as a higher-brow prefab housing, turning construction more into manufactured good, and that the regulations, in some sense, have forced an inefficient scale on our producers, but I don’t know.”
10 / belief
“Let’s back up and try to look at big countries that are not export-oriented, that are primarily domestically driven like the United States. I think imports are what, 10 percent, 12 percent of personal consumption.”
11 / evaluation
“Then let’s back up to a little bit to how the Fed is created. It was made in 1913, so it’s a little bit kludgy, and like every politically created thing, it involves some compromises, but there are a couple of pieces, I think are genius, or at least very durable, important contributions about how the Fed is built that we should not lose.”
12 / evaluation
“I think the thought that Grandma is going to have a CBDC and forget her password, and the Fed is going to have a customer service line that Grandma’s going to call and say, “How do I get my password back?”
13 / evaluation
“Because a lot of the grandest dreams for AI and rapid adoption, I think, are premised on extrapolating a growth rate.”
14 / evaluation
“” I think that a lot of that is because of financial innovation that we have at great pride, and I love the cash vault at the Chicago Fed.”
15 / evaluation
“Unemployment is way higher than what we think of as the natural rate, and inflation is soaring.”
16 / evaluation
“My view has been more, part of the job of the Reserve Bank presidents is we have a district, and our district in Chicago is heart of the Midwest — most of Wisconsin, Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan.”
17 / recommendation
“I would say that discipline of academic economics — getting into the data — is super useful.”
18 / evaluation
“The fact that in March of ’23, the big banks were not the problem, I think a lot has to do with all of the efforts that were put in place to raise capital at those larger banks.”
19 / prediction
“If we start attaching risky things to the payment system, now I’m getting nervous because we know that in financial crises, we must make sure that people can still make their payments, that they’re not getting evicted, and they make their house payment, or they can buy groceries, or they can buy whatever.”