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Bitter Lessons in Venture vs Growth: Anthropic vs OpenAI, Noam Shazeer, World Labs, Thinking Machines, Cursor, ASIC Economics — Martin Casado & Sarah Wang of a16z

19 Feb 2026 27 published claims 3 attributable people

Speakers in the public record

Claim mix

belief 15evaluation 4commitment 2recommendation 2prediction 2observation 1preference 1

Evidence policy

Every row below preserves an exact excerpt. Identified speakers are linked; unresolved voices are labeled and excluded from people counts.

Claim ledger

The useful parts, with receipts.

27 published records

01 / belief

Total. And I think, you know, stuff like BD for example, you wouldn’t usually need BD when you were seed stage trying to get market biz Devrel.

“Total. And I think, you know, stuff like BD for example, you wouldn’t usually need BD when you were seed stage trying to get market biz Devrel.”
Speaker
Sarah Wang
Publisher
Latent Space

02 / belief

I think the other piece, maybe just to add onto this, and I’m gonna quote Martine in front of him, but this is probably also a unique time in that.

“I think the other piece, maybe just to add onto this, and I’m gonna quote Martine in front of him, but this is probably also a unique time in that.”
Speaker
Sarah Wang
Publisher
Latent Space

03 / belief

Uh, you know, obviously they should share it themselves, but, um, they’ve, you know, I think when you bring a team of that caliber together, there’s special things that happen.

“Uh, you know, obviously they should share it themselves, but, um, they’ve, you know, I think when you bring a team of that caliber together, there’s special things that happen.”
Speaker
Sarah Wang
Publisher
Latent Space

05 / commitment

If I can raise more money than the aggregate of everybody that’s using it, I will consume them whether I’m a GI or not.

“If I can raise more money than the aggregate of everybody that’s using it, I will consume them whether I’m a GI or not.”
Speaker
Martin Casado
Publisher
Latent Space

06 / belief

Um, cool. But, you know, if you go back to, let’s say March, 2024, that period, it felt like a, I think an open source model with an, like a, you know, benchmark leading capability was sort of launching on a daily basis at that point.

“Um, cool. But, you know, if you go back to, let’s say March, 2024, that period, it felt like a, I think an open source model with an, like a, you know, benchmark leading capability was sort of launching on a daily basis at that point.”
Speaker
Sarah Wang
Publisher
Latent Space

07 / belief

Sorry, what am I, one more thing I think is, is underused in all of this is like, to what extent every task is a GI complete.

“Sorry, what am I, one more thing I think is, is underused in all of this is like, to what extent every task is a GI complete.”
Speaker
Martin Casado
Publisher
Latent Space

08 / belief

Maybe decade, but, uh, uh, just like I, I think, you know, I, I just going back to the discussion about how a GI would just kind of consume everything.

“Maybe decade, but, uh, uh, just like I, I think, you know, I, I just going back to the discussion about how a GI would just kind of consume everything.”
Speaker
Shawn Wang
Publisher
Latent Space

09 / belief

Every domain has a specialist, and we think if you can win that, you become very large, very quickly, and that’s actually played out in the numbers.

“Every domain has a specialist, and we think if you can win that, you become very large, very quickly, and that’s actually played out in the numbers.”
Speaker
Sarah Wang
Publisher
Latent Space

11 / belief

I, I mean, to me, like, you know, philanthropic, like building on cloud code, I think, uh, it makes sense to me the, the real.

“I, I mean, to me, like, you know, philanthropic, like building on cloud code, I think, uh, it makes sense to me the, the real.”
Speaker
Shawn Wang
Publisher
Latent Space

12 / belief

I, I think that, uh, you know, speaking about ad there’s, there’s a really like interesting tie in that obviously you guys are hit on, which is like these sort, this sort of like America first movement or like sort of re industrialized here.

“I, I think that, uh, you know, speaking about ad there’s, there’s a really like interesting tie in that obviously you guys are hit on, which is like these sort, this sort of like America first movement or like sort of re industrialized here.”
Speaker
Shawn Wang
Publisher
Latent Space

14 / belief

My, my, uh, sort of, uh, thesis, which we’re not gonna have to go into here is actually I think a, um, what I’ve been calling Agent Labs, which are [00:54:00] people who build on top of, uh, all the other models.

“My, my, uh, sort of, uh, thesis, which we’re not gonna have to go into here is actually I think a, um, what I’ve been calling Agent Labs, which are [00:54:00] people who build on top of, uh, all the other models.”
Speaker
Shawn Wang
Publisher
Latent Space

15 / belief

Like actually just like be aware of how much of the interaction has nothing to do with coding and it just turns out to be a large portion of it. And so like, you’re, I think like, like the best Soto ish model.

“Like actually just like be aware of how much of the interaction has nothing to do with coding and it just turns out to be a large portion of it. And so like, you’re, I think like, like the best Soto ish model.”
Speaker
Martin Casado
Publisher
Latent Space

16 / commitment

I will say this is the furthest, so we have a very privileged position on the boards of these companies, and like I’ll say, I’ve never seen.

“I will say this is the furthest, so we have a very privileged position on the boards of these companies, and like I’ll say, I’ve never seen.”
Speaker
Martin Casado
Publisher
Latent Space

17 / belief

Um, and I think a lot of the big, I think, you know, opening eyes, feeling that, um, anthropic if they haven’t started, you know, felt it, certainly given the success of their products, they may start to feel that soon.

“Um, and I think a lot of the big, I think, you know, opening eyes, feeling that, um, anthropic if they haven’t started, you know, felt it, certainly given the success of their products, they may start to feel that soon.”
Speaker
Sarah Wang
Publisher
Latent Space

18 / observation

You know, I think right now there’s almost a barbell, like you’re like the hot thing on X, you’re deep tech.

“You know, I think right now there’s almost a barbell, like you’re like the hot thing on X, you’re deep tech.”
Speaker
Martin Casado
Publisher
Latent Space

19 / evaluation

I, I agree. So it feels so, it feel, it feels this way to me too. It’s like, it is like, basically Zuckerberg kind of came out swinging and then now he’s kind of back to building.

“I, I agree. So it feels so, it feel, it feels this way to me too. It’s like, it is like, basically Zuckerberg kind of came out swinging and then now he’s kind of back to building.”
Speaker
Martin Casado
Publisher
Latent Space

20 / recommendation

We’d, everybody would be happy with these returns, but we’ve got this kind of mania on these, these strong growths. And so I would say that that’s probably the most underinvested sector.

“We’d, everybody would be happy with these returns, but we’ve got this kind of mania on these, these strong growths. And so I would say that that’s probably the most underinvested sector.”
Speaker
Martin Casado
Publisher
Latent Space

21 / preference

I think like it’s important to hear you guys’ perspective because the rest of us are just kind of looking at headlines and not knowing how to make sense of any of this.

“I think like it’s important to hear you guys’ perspective because the rest of us are just kind of looking at headlines and not knowing how to make sense of any of this.”
Speaker
Shawn Wang
Publisher
Latent Space

22 / recommendation

You start with a foundation model and then you verticalize up, or you start with the app and all of the product data and you go down and they’re the ones that are doing that. I think any company that’s doing an app has to ask the margin question.

“You start with a foundation model and then you verticalize up, or you start with the app and all of the product data and you go down and they’re the ones that are doing that. I think any company that’s doing an app has to ask the margin question.”
Speaker
Martin Casado
Publisher
Latent Space

24 / evaluation

Clearly from the AV wave deep map, clearly from the AV wave, I would say scale AI was actually a horizontal one for That’s fair, you know, for robotics early on.

“Clearly from the AV wave deep map, clearly from the AV wave, I would say scale AI was actually a horizontal one for That’s fair, you know, for robotics early on.”
Speaker
Martin Casado
Publisher
Latent Space

25 / evaluation

My belief is if you actually look at the numbers of these companies, so generally if you look at the numbers of these companies, if you look at like the amount they’re making and how much they, they spent training the last model, they’re gross margin positive.

“My belief is if you actually look at the numbers of these companies, so generally if you look at the numbers of these companies, if you look at like the amount they’re making and how much they, they spent training the last model, they’re gross margin positive.”
Speaker
Martin Casado
Publisher
Latent Space

27 / prediction

There could be a, a systemic situation where the soda models can raise so much money that they can out pay anybody that bills on top of ‘em, which would be something I don’t think we’ve ever seen before just because we were so bottlenecked in engineering, and this is a very open question.

“There could be a, a systemic situation where the soda models can raise so much money that they can out pay anybody that bills on top of ‘em, which would be something I don’t think we’ve ever seen before just because we were so bottlenecked in engineering, and this is a very open question.”
Speaker
Martin Casado
Publisher
Latent Space
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