Martin Casado: prediction

Transcript context

…Like, we should get to the point where like the friction of like token to product is so low that you can do this and then you can change the Right, the early stage venture model to be much more iterative. And then every round is like either 100 k of inference or like a hundred million from a 16 Z. There’s no, there’s no like $8 million C round anymore. Right. But, but, but, but there’s a, there’s a, the, an industry structural question that we don’t know the answer to, which involves the frontier models, which is, let’s take. Anthropic it. Let’s say Anthropic has a state-of-the-art model that has some large percentage of market share. And let’s say that, uh, uh, uh, you know, uh, a company’s building smaller models that, you know, use the bigger model in the background, open 4.5, but they add value on top of that. Now, if Anthropic can raise three times more. Every subsequent round, they probably can raise more money than the entire app ecosystem that’s built on top of it. And if that’s the case, they can expand beyond everything built on top of it. It’s like imagine like a star that’s just kind of expanding, so there could be a systemic. There could be a, a systemic situation where the soda models can raise so much money that they can out pay anybody that bills on top of ‘em, which would be something I don’t think we’ve ever seen before just because we were so bottlenecked in engineering, and this is a very open question. Yeah. It’s, it is almost like bitter lesson applied to the startup industry.…

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