person / likes
James Burnham
“Oh, yes, my favorite is James Burnham. He’s my favorite.”
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person / likes
“Oh, yes, my favorite is James Burnham. He’s my favorite.”
person / recommends
“Then I read this profile that I recommend to everybody, which is, Tom Wolfe, the great novelist, journalist, wrote a profile of Bob Noyce, who was the original founder of Intel and basically the father of the chip industry.”
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12 transcript-backed records
01 / prediction
“And so if you sort of combine in a country like the US or any country in Europe, if you combine declining population with less immigration, the remaining human workers are going to be at a premium, not at a discount. And so I think that combination of faster productivity growth, faster economic growth, and then slower population growth and less immigration actually means there's going to be much less of this kind of dystopian no jobs' thing.”
02 / prediction
“Everybody's materially much better off very quickly. And then by the way, to the extent that you do have unemployment coming out the other side of that, it's now much cheaper to provide the social safety net to prevent people from being immiserated because the prices of all the goods and services that a welfare program has to pay from, they're all collapsing.”
03 / prediction
“All of that translates to, okay, probably at the end of this, there's going to be two or three companies that are going to end up with like 100%, I don't know, whatever, 50/50 or 30/30/30 or 90/10 and one, or whatever it is, market share and then they're going to have whatever profitability they have and it's going to be kind of a classic oligopoly, or maybe one company's going to win definitively and it'll be a monopoly.”
04 / prediction
“Specifically, the following, which is every coder now believes they can also be a product manager and a designer because they have AI, every product manager thinks they can be a coder and a designer, and then every designer knows they can be a product manager and a coder.”
05 / prediction
“They got really bad on many fronts at the same time. And so just relieving that and getting back to a reasonably optimistic, constructive, pro-growth frame of mind, there’s so much pent-up energy and potentially in the American system, that alone is going to, I think cause growth and spirit to take off.”
06 / prediction
“I would say, I’m not going to predict, I’m going to say there’s questions all over the place. And we have this category of question we call the trillion-dollar question, which is literally, depending on how it’s answered, people make or lose a trillion dollars, and I think there’s, I don’t know, five or six trillion questions right now, that are hanging out there, which is an unusually large number.”
07 / prediction
“Cybersecurity people are quite, I think, legitimately concerned that AI’s going to make it easier to actually create and launch cybersecurity attacks.”
08 / prediction
“I think kids are going to grow up with basically — you could use various terms, assistant, friend, coach, mentor, tutor, but kids are going to grow up in this amazing back-and-forth relationship with AI.”
09 / prediction
“We will now have, I think, a relatively protracted process of many regulators or many agencies without explicit authority in the domain basically inserting themselves into the space.”
10 / prediction
“ptimistic view on that is that it's the transition from these companies being in the bourgeois capitalist model to the managerial model that creates the opportunity for the new generation of startups. Because then the counterfactual, if these companies remained bourgeois capitalist companies for 100 years, then they would be the companies to create all the new products, and then we wouldn't necessarily need to exist because those companies would just do what startups do.”
11 / prediction
“If we hit five clean-tech sectors in a row or something like that, the whole thing just doesn't work.”
12 / prediction
“Maybe, I think, it grows the media business, but it doesn’t have to cause it to explode like that, but having it be a better proposition for creators, having it be a better proposition for consumers, having content come into existence that didn’t exist before.”