Public evidence record
Published podcast speaker
Claim ledger
20 transcript-backed records
01 / belief
“I think there is in the audience a friend of mine, Gary Klein, who is violently opposed to what I’m saying, as are many others.”
02 / uncertainty
“I don’t know exactly how to explain it, but I thought that this was not a loss for me, to do psychology in a second language.”
03 / uncertainty
“I’ve never been very interested in individual differences and not in gender either, so I don’t know.”
04 / belief
“Oddly enough, there is one aspect of Freudian work that I think did influence me.”
05 / observation
“Look, the point is, there is so much noise in essay grading that it’s quite easy to imagine a program that would look at various indices and that would do better than hurried and tired professors.”
06 / belief
“I think our publishers just remembered that there is going to be a presidential election at that time and that probably a lot of more interesting books are going to be appearing.”
07 / belief
“Like everybody else, I think, like many others, there are two exciting developments now that one would want to know about.”
08 / belief
“I don’t have an answer. But I think the kind of thinking that is going on, where you’re trying to look at practical manipulations — the word manipulation is a bad word, but I intend it as a good thing — when you look at the practical moves that can make a difference in the way that people think, that way of thinking should be effective in improving the quality of life and improving the quality .”
09 / belief
“Then, of course, you can achieve more rational results than you could. But whether it has changed anything significant, I doubt it.”
10 / belief
“Virtually all the literature and a lot of public conversation is about biases. But in fact, noise is, I think, extremely important, very prevalent.”
11 / prediction
“As for counterfactuals and happiness, I think that what you referred to — there are counterfactual emotions.”
12 / prediction
“I think, obviously, recognition-primed decision-making is going to be wonderful if people really can recognize things accurately.”
13 / evaluation
“I think there’s no question that there are cultural differences. For one thing, for example, there are major cultural differences in the attitude to optimists, to optimism.”
14 / evaluation
“Many areas of psychology have changed, and it clearly is a better science than it was 10 years ago because of the replication crisis.”
15 / prediction
“My guess now, that wherever people exercise judgment, there is noise. And, as a first rule, there is more noise than people expect, and there’s more noise than they can imagine because it’s very difficult to imagine that people have a very different opinion from yours when your opinion is right, which it is.”
16 / evaluation
“I think sunk cost is really the enemy when you’re doing research, innovative research.”
17 / recommendation
“I will do the conventional thing. I will ask about their reputation because that’s the best measure we have.”
18 / evaluation
“That really happens a great deal, and quite often, it happens in a different way. It happens when somebody’s insulted because you didn’t cite him.”
19 / prediction
“That we will need human beings is, I think, an illusion. Take chess for example.”
20 / evaluation
“Sunk cost is a fairly specific thing. It is that you’re putting a different value on a move or an investment that you make because of investment that you have already made than you would if you were looking at that de novo.”