Daniel Kahneman: recommendation

Transcript context

…If you’re picking doctors, where maybe results are hard to measure in some cases, what do you look for when selecting doctors, in broad terms? I will do the conventional thing. I will ask about their reputation because that’s the best measure we have. If it’s a surgeon that I’m looking for, then there are real indices, the main one being the number of times he’s performed the operation in question. That you know is what you’ve got to examine because people really do get better over time, so measuring how much practice they’ve had. And the practice is fairly specific on different operations. I think I would know how to pick a surgeon. There’s a good deal of evidence that people in businesses are overconfident, but do you think they’re more overconfident than they should be?…

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