Daniel Kahneman: prediction

Transcript context

…Do you side with the analysts, such as Martin Ford, who see really a very large number of jobs being potentially automatable with artificial intelligence, machine learning? Or will we always need the human beings to work with the machines? That we will need human beings is, I think, an illusion. Take chess for example. Kasparov was beaten 20 years ago, and he went on for a while — and it was true for a while — saying the teams of chess players with grand masters — of programs with grand masters would be stronger than either. And it was true for a while. It is true no longer. The programs do not need the grand masters. You know how it happened, and it’s likely to happen in many other fields. It’s happening in dermatology. The diagnosis is now better done by programs than by people, and they are not going to need the person very often. That is, to have a person intervene, with the right to intervene, they will sometimes correct mistakes. But they will more often, I think, introduce mistakes. So when you have a well-running program, leave it alone. So we as professors won’t need to grade exams anymore, and I don’t just mean multiple choice. You run machine learning on papers, you find what correlates with a good paper, you put the paper through the program.…

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