Public evidence record
Published podcast speaker
Claim ledger
4 transcript-backed records
01 / prediction
“As for counterfactuals and happiness, I think that what you referred to — there are counterfactual emotions.”
02 / prediction
“I think, obviously, recognition-primed decision-making is going to be wonderful if people really can recognize things accurately.”
03 / prediction
“My guess now, that wherever people exercise judgment, there is noise. And, as a first rule, there is more noise than people expect, and there’s more noise than they can imagine because it’s very difficult to imagine that people have a very different opinion from yours when your opinion is right, which it is.”
04 / prediction
“That we will need human beings is, I think, an illusion. Take chess for example.”