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Published podcast speaker
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26 transcript-backed records
01 / belief
“Whereas, I think he thinks that it would be fine because its complexity is good or something like that.”
02 / belief
“I think just, like, here here's the probabilities, you know, roughly for people conditioned on, like, thinking that you're getting AGI by 02/1930.”
03 / belief
“I think we already have the AIs helping or influencing AI development in a recursive way of partly automating some code, helping design the chips, helping cool the power plants, helping label some of the data, doing the, you know, the constitutional AI related type of stuff.”
04 / belief
“I think you could certainly give them an under specified goal But I just don't think they could pursue that terribly coherently or, like, learn from experiments because they just have a big short term they they just have a short term memory of, like, maybe a million tokens.”
05 / belief
“The such projects would be sabotageable as well. So it's sort of I I think there's some key if you're saying, well, we'll have it just be an industry or something like that, well, then you're not gonna have good information security.”
06 / belief
“I don't like shutting down debates entirely, but I think I'd postpone I I I would postpone a lot of these sorts of post For instance, this post human stuff and and I'm just sort of flailing about and speaking somewhat imprecisely just because I haven't spent as much time thinking about this in particular.”
07 / evaluation
“You're needing a lot more compute. And so your deployment capabilities, how many chips are owned by, say, US hyperscaler companies, Azure, AWS, etcetera, is a very relevant competitiveness variable because then are they able to serve the customers or not?”
08 / evaluation
“I think on the I think, generally, I think the political problems, the incentives, the giving people things to do that are incentive payable is is where more of the value is at compared to on the technical side.”
09 / evaluation
“It's guided by being useful. But I think that there's often niches that people aren't trying to bring clarity to or advance or think about from the perspective of AI being a very big deal.”
10 / evaluation
“If it's researchers and they're not being paid well, they're also going in the middle of nowhere in some place that has a big data center with a big target over it, because it's extremely visible from space, it gives off so much heat.”
11 / prediction
“geable as well. So it's sort of I I think there's some key if you're saying, well, we'll have it just be an industry or something like that, well, then you're not gonna have good information security.”
12 / evaluation
“In in the nuclear era, we had deterrence through mutual assured destruction. They don't use nukes because we can hit them back.”
13 / evaluation
“Because fortunately, they're not agents yet. So basically, all this research doesn't particularly matter, with the exception of, like, dual use expert level advice, because the agents aren't capable.”
14 / prediction
“If they control it, if if another state does this, you're in big trouble because if they control it, they can weaponize against you. And if they don't control it, which I think would be the more likely outcome because they'd be doing it under extreme time pressures, cutting a lot of corners.”
15 / belief
“The reason this is and for fluid intelligence, such as what we see in the Arc AGI thing and Raven's regressive Matrices test, that still seems very deficient as well. So I think when thinking about these it's important to split up one's notion of cognition because if there is a severe limitation on any of these dimensions, then the models will be fairly defective economically, or at least for many tasks.”
16 / belief
“I think you have to have the background context in both cases be that you're able to proceed with development under some risk tolerance that's much lower than what there is today.”
17 / belief
“I think basically both positions are legitimate, but I think if you'd integrate them, there could be a bullish case that you'll be able to knock off some of this cognitive abilities by the end of the decade.”
18 / belief
“I think with the current paradigm, I am expecting them to continue to leapfrog each other.”
19 / belief
“I think pushing for things like transparency as well as the government having people whose job it is to be keeping track of these, coming up with contingency plans, interviewing these labs for their plans and coming up with an internal assessment, their probability of success.”
20 / belief
“You know, there's there's a lot in this in this deep future that 1 could pull at, but I I I think there are some there there are some, paths, where things work out well.”
21 / belief
“I I I think making time for technical research, I'm not expecting much return on investment from that.”
22 / belief
“Main progress over the past 2 years or so has been in mathematical ability and short term memory is also better. But so I'm still wrapping my head around that since I'm being more noncommittal about some of these different forecasts where I think maybe it still seems very plausible, more than plausible by 2,030 something that has the cognitive abilities of a typical human, some system like that.”
23 / belief
“I think that that's, that's a direction or an interpretation of those facts that that had that is reasonable, but but there's there's a question of incentives and what you know, there might be a a somewhat different ask that's better.”
24 / belief
“I think AGI doesn't have a clear definition, so it's difficult for me to say for all definitions of that that would be worth standing in front of.”
25 / belief
“I think you could set a society up so that people have the autonomy to choose between different ways that they would want to live their life given the resources that AI increasing GDP could provide.”
26 / prediction
“That's And I expect that this game will keep continuing, and we won't get to a state where that is basically mostly managed in time, because the risk surface will keep evolving with agents that will present new things, we'll have to deal with those current cases that will create a substantial backlog, and we just won't have the adaptive capacity.”