Dan Hendrycks: evaluation

Transcript context

…Yeah. And of course, you you spoke about so many strategies. So, you know, 1 potential strategy is the Manhattan Project, and The US achieves dominance. But then, in a sense, The US has a target on its back. Right? Because they've developed this incredible capability. And and and what then would would we need to move our data centers all over the place and hide them and away from population centers and and and so on? Yeah. The yeah. I mean, I think in if 1 has short timelines, it just isn't in the cards to do a big secretive project in a way that isn't extremely escalatory. Because if you if you wake up China for this then, mean, another thing is they would also potentially create some sort of Manhattan project. And I don't know, they might be better at it. They would probably have better information security for it and they might have like they'd at least have a big chunk of the talent. Would it be the majority? I don't know. That's unclear. But if we're requiring that they have security clearances, that limits your your pool of researchers substantially. If it's researchers and they're not being paid well, they're also going in the middle of nowhere in some place that has a big data center with a big target over it, because it's extremely visible from space, it gives off so much heat. It's not like this would be a secret. Yeah. You're putting yourself in harm's way as well. I don't know. That doesn't sound like an attractive proposition. So I think it's I think it's a bit self defeating. And I I think that in the the past months, I think partly as a consequence of the paper. I don't think this is much of a thing in DC as a as an idea being thrown around, fortunately. Yeah. But and and people like Sachs and others are speaking about, you know, competition for marketplace or market share, US market share, which I think is a a more reasonable object to compete on and much less a stabilizing 1. Yeah. I mean, another thing that struck me is essentially right now, AI is not that difficult to make. Right? So the the algorithms are just doing stochastic gradient descent, and they're using transformers and data. And almost anyone, I mean, any nation state would be able to create this capability. Right? In 1 of your papers, you even said, I think, that there is I think it was a 96% correlation between comp you like the amount of compute and and the capabilities. So doesn't this, like how the hell can you I mean, obviously, you can, like, control supply chains and and whatnot, but what's to stop any nation state from just building this?…

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