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Carl Shulman

Published podcast speaker

Claims
45
Episodes
2
Shows
1
Named items
0

Claim ledger

What Carl said.

14 transcript-backed records

01 / belief

You find this extremely skewed distribution and I found that was really a valuable benefit of doing those deep dive investigations into many things in a systematic way because now I can answer a loose agnostic who knows and all the all this nonsense by diving deeply.

“You find this extremely skewed distribution and I found that was really a valuable benefit of doing those deep dive investigations into many things in a systematic way because now I can answer a loose agnostic who knows and all the all this nonsense by diving deeply.”
Speaker
Carl Shulman
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

02 / belief

Yeah, when you had Eliezer on in the earlier episode he talked about nanotechnology of the Drexlerian sort and recently I think because some people are skeptical of non-biotech nanotechnology he's been mentioning the semi-equivalent versions of construct replicating systems that can be controlled by computers but are built out of biotechnology.

“Yeah, when you had Eliezer on in the earlier episode he talked about nanotechnology of the Drexlerian sort and recently I think because some people are skeptical of non-biotech nanotechnology he's been mentioning the semi-equivalent versions of construct replicating systems that can be controlled by computers but are built out of biotechnology.”
Speaker
Carl Shulman
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

05 / belief

I've been emphasizing methods that involve less in the way of technological innovation and especially things where there's more doubt about whether they would work because I think that's a gap in the public discourse.

“I've been emphasizing methods that involve less in the way of technological innovation and especially things where there's more doubt about whether they would work because I think that's a gap in the public discourse.”
Speaker
Carl Shulman
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

06 / belief

I wound up mostly focused on AI but there have been other things that have been raised as candidates and people sometimes say, I think falsely, that this is just another doomsday story there must be hundreds and hundreds of those.

“I wound up mostly focused on AI but there have been other things that have been raised as candidates and people sometimes say, I think falsely, that this is just another doomsday story there must be hundreds and hundreds of those.”
Speaker
Carl Shulman
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

07 / belief

The AIs become smarter than humans, if they're working in enormous numbers more than humans can supervise I think get harder but when I combine the possibility that we get relatively lucky on the motivations of the earlier AI systems, systems strong enough that we can use for some alignment research tasks, and then the possibility of getting that later with AI assistance that we can't trust fully or we have to have hard power constraints and a number of things to prevent them from doing this takeover.

“The AIs become smarter than humans, if they're working in enormous numbers more than humans can supervise I think get harder but when I combine the possibility that we get relatively lucky on the motivations of the earlier AI systems, systems strong enough that we can use for some alignment research tasks, and then the possibility of getting that later with AI assistance that we can't trust fully or we have to have hard power constraints and a number of things to prevent them from doing this takeover.”
Speaker
Carl Shulman
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

08 / belief

I think the difference is motivation. We sometimes have people appointed as a legal guardian of someone who is incapable of certain kinds of agency or understanding certain kinds of things and the guardian can act independently of them and normally in service of their best interests.

“I think the difference is motivation. We sometimes have people appointed as a legal guardian of someone who is incapable of certain kinds of agency or understanding certain kinds of things and the guardian can act independently of them and normally in service of their best interests.”
Speaker
Carl Shulman
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

09 / belief

I think broadly comparable chunks from us getting things that are putting us in a reasonably good position going into it and then a broadly similar gain from this genuinely terrifying process at the very end, over a few months or hopefully longer, when this kind of automated research is meaningfully helping.

“I think broadly comparable chunks from us getting things that are putting us in a reasonably good position going into it and then a broadly similar gain from this genuinely terrifying process at the very end, over a few months or hopefully longer, when this kind of automated research is meaningfully helping.”
Speaker
Carl Shulman
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

10 / belief

I think that set of inputs probably would yield the kind of AI capabilities needed for intelligence explosion but if it doesn't, after we've exhausted this current scale up of increasing the share of our economy that is trying to make AI.

“I think that set of inputs probably would yield the kind of AI capabilities needed for intelligence explosion but if it doesn't, after we've exhausted this current scale up of increasing the share of our economy that is trying to make AI.”
Speaker
Carl Shulman
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

12 / belief

There was an element of that where more and more investment has been thrown into the field and the market has rapidly expanded as the technology improved. But I think the closest analogy is actually the long run growth of human civilization itself and I know you had Holden Karnofsky from the open philanthropy project on earlier and discuss some of this research about the long run acceleration of human population and economic growth.

“There was an element of that where more and more investment has been thrown into the field and the market has rapidly expanded as the technology improved. But I think the closest analogy is actually the long run growth of human civilization itself and I know you had Holden Karnofsky from the open philanthropy project on earlier and discuss some of this research about the long run acceleration of human population and economic growth.”
Speaker
Carl Shulman
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast
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