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Carl Shulman

Published podcast speaker

Claims
45
Episodes
2
Shows
1
Named items
0

Claim ledger

What Carl said.

12 transcript-backed records

01 / prediction

If there's no premature AI action, we're building the tools and mechanisms and infrastructure for the takeover to be just immediate because effective industry has to be under AI control and robotics.

“If there's no premature AI action, we're building the tools and mechanisms and infrastructure for the takeover to be just immediate because effective industry has to be under AI control and robotics.”
Speaker
Carl Shulman
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

02 / prediction

Although in this scenario all the AIs in the world have been subverted. They are going along with us in such a way as to bring about the situation to consolidate their control because we've already had the failure of cyber security earlier on.

“Although in this scenario all the AIs in the world have been subverted. They are going along with us in such a way as to bring about the situation to consolidate their control because we've already had the failure of cyber security earlier on.”
Speaker
Carl Shulman
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

03 / prediction

Moving back to the thing that happened before we built all the infrastructure for the robots to stop taking orders and there's nothing you can do about it because we've already built them.

“Moving back to the thing that happened before we built all the infrastructure for the robots to stop taking orders and there's nothing you can do about it because we've already built them.”
Speaker
Carl Shulman
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

04 / prediction

If in the future it's as easy to set the actual underlying motivations of AI as it is right now to set the behavior that they display then it means you could have AI's created with almost whatever motivation people wish and that could really drastically change political affairs because the ability to decide and determine the loyalties of the humans or AIs and robots that hold the guns, that hold together society, that ultimately back it against violent overthrow and such.

“If in the future it's as easy to set the actual underlying motivations of AI as it is right now to set the behavior that they display then it means you could have AI's created with almost whatever motivation people wish and that could really drastically change political affairs because the ability to decide and determine the loyalties of the humans or AIs and robots that hold the guns, that hold together society, that ultimately back it against violent overthrow and such.”
Speaker
Carl Shulman
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

05 / prediction

We don't know when in the process those motives might develop and if the really bad sorts of motivations develop relatively later in the training process at least with all our countermeasures, then by that time we may have plenty of ability to extract AI assistance on further strengthening the quality of our adversarial examples, the strength of our neural lie detectors, the experiments that we can use to reveal and elicit and distinguish between different kinds of reward hacking tendencies and motivations.

“We don't know when in the process those motives might develop and if the really bad sorts of motivations develop relatively later in the training process at least with all our countermeasures, then by that time we may have plenty of ability to extract AI assistance on further strengthening the quality of our adversarial examples, the strength of our neural lie detectors, the experiments that we can use to reveal and elicit and distinguish between different kinds of reward hacking tendencies and motivations.”
Speaker
Carl Shulman
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

06 / prediction

If that's all happening with humans unaware that their computer systems are now systematically controlled by AIs hostile to them and that their controlling countermeasures don't work, then humans are just going to be building an amount of robot industrial and military hardware that dwarfs human capabilities and directly human controlled devices.

“If that's all happening with humans unaware that their computer systems are now systematically controlled by AIs hostile to them and that their controlling countermeasures don't work, then humans are just going to be building an amount of robot industrial and military hardware that dwarfs human capabilities and directly human controlled devices.”
Speaker
Carl Shulman
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

07 / prediction

It can be that it's automated a bunch of things and then those are being done in extreme profusion. A thing AI can do, you can have it done much more often because it's so cheap.

“It can be that it's automated a bunch of things and then those are being done in extreme profusion. A thing AI can do, you can have it done much more often because it's so cheap.”
Speaker
Carl Shulman
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

08 / prediction

Back then when I said, yeah, I expect this by the middle of the century-ish, that was a backstop if we found it absurdly difficult to get to the algorithms and then we would learn from neuroscience.

“Back then when I said, yeah, I expect this by the middle of the century-ish, that was a backstop if we found it absurdly difficult to get to the algorithms and then we would learn from neuroscience.”
Speaker
Carl Shulman
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

09 / prediction

[unclear] That's not to say that's the limit of the most that technology could do because biology is able to reproduce at faster rates and maybe we're talking about that in a moment, but if we're trying to restrict ourselves to robotic technology as we understand it and cost falls that are reasonable from eliminating all labor, massive industrial scale up, and historical kinds of technological improvements that lowered costs, I think you you can get into a robot population industry doubling in months.

“[unclear] That's not to say that's the limit of the most that technology could do because biology is able to reproduce at faster rates and maybe we're talking about that in a moment, but if we're trying to restrict ourselves to robotic technology as we understand it and cost falls that are reasonable from eliminating all labor, massive industrial scale up, and historical kinds of technological improvements that lowered costs, I think you you can get into a robot population industry doubling in months.”
Speaker
Carl Shulman
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

10 / prediction

In the 2000s, I would say well, I'm gonna have a pretty uniformish prior I'm gonna put weight on it happening at the equivalent of 10^25 ops, 10^30, 10^35 and spreading out over that and then I can update another information.

“In the 2000s, I would say well, I'm gonna have a pretty uniformish prior I'm gonna put weight on it happening at the equivalent of 10^25 ops, 10^30, 10^35 and spreading out over that and then I can update another information.”
Speaker
Carl Shulman
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

11 / prediction

We're running through the orders of magnitude of possible resource inputs you could need for AI much much more quickly than we were for most of the history of AI. That's why this is a period with a very elevated chance of AI per year because we're moving through so much of the space of inputs per year and indeed it looks like this scale-up taken to its conclusion will cover another bunch of orders of magnitude and that's actually a large fraction of those that are left before you start running into saying well, this is going to have to be like evolution with the simple hacks we get to apply.

“We're running through the orders of magnitude of possible resource inputs you could need for AI much much more quickly than we were for most of the history of AI. That's why this is a period with a very elevated chance of AI per year because we're moving through so much of the space of inputs per year and indeed it looks like this scale-up taken to its conclusion will cover another bunch of orders of magnitude and that's actually a large fraction of those that are left before you start running into saying well, this is going to have to be like evolution with the simple hacks we get to apply.”
Speaker
Carl Shulman
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

12 / prediction

You can also make improvements on the software side and when we think about an intelligence explosion that can include — AI is doing work on making hardware better, making better software, making more hardware.

“You can also make improvements on the software side and when we think about an intelligence explosion that can include — AI is doing work on making hardware better, making better software, making more hardware.”
Speaker
Carl Shulman
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast
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