Evidence receipt / belief
Published · transcript-backedCarl Shulman: belief
26 Jun 2023 Dwarkesh Podcast Carl Shulman (Pt 2) — AI Takeover, bio & cyber attacks, detecting deception, & humanity's far future
“I think broadly comparable chunks from us getting things that are putting us in a reasonably good position going into it and then a broadly similar gain from this genuinely terrifying process at the very end, over a few months or hopefully longer, when this kind of automated research is meaningfully helping.”
Source trail
Everything needed to verify it.
- Speaker
- Carl Shulman
- Attribution
- Verified speaker
- Claim type
- belief
- Recorded
- 26 Jun 2023
- Publisher
- Dwarkesh Podcast
Transcript context
…How much of that 75 percent of a takeover not happening is coming from reasonable things working versus the last-ditch effort working? I think broadly comparable chunks from us getting things that are putting us in a reasonably good position going into it and then a broadly similar gain from this genuinely terrifying process at the very end, over a few months or hopefully longer, when this kind of automated research is meaningfully helping. Where our work is just evaluating outputs that the AIs are delivering and having the hard power and supervision to keep them from successfully rooting the servers doing a takeover during this process and have them finish the alignment test that we sadly failed to invest enough to succeed in doing beforehand. Do both of these worlds rely on alignment being a problem that a sufficient amount of human researchers alone could have solved?…
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