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Annie Duke

Published podcast speaker

Claims
22
Episodes
2
Shows
2
Named items
0

Claim ledger

What Annie said.

22 transcript-backed records

01 / evaluation

I think Kahneman did some work way back that started him on this journey. That was basically work on hiring and it was taking it from completely unstructured Lenny, saying, "I just know a great product manager when I see one", whatever that means, to me going to Lenny and saying, "Okay, I understand that you think that you see a great product manager you know one when you see one", but can you explain to me what that means?

“I think Kahneman did some work way back that started him on this journey. That was basically work on hiring and it was taking it from completely unstructured Lenny, saying, "I just know a great product manager when I see one", whatever that means, to me going to Lenny and saying, "Okay, I understand that you think that you see a great product manager you know one when you see one", but can you explain to me what that means?”
Speaker
Annie Duke
Publisher
Lenny's Podcast

02 / belief

I remember having a lunch with him where I realized after the lunch that the whole lunch was him asking me questions about my work.

“I remember having a lunch with him where I realized after the lunch that the whole lunch was him asking me questions about my work.”
Speaker
Annie Duke
Publisher
Lenny's Podcast

03 / evaluation

Do you feel like you failed? And what that means is that by the time, there's so many biases against stopping that by the time you're actually even thinking about quitting, it's probably already past the time that you ought to have quit.

“Do you feel like you failed? And what that means is that by the time, there's so many biases against stopping that by the time you're actually even thinking about quitting, it's probably already past the time that you ought to have quit.”
Speaker
Annie Duke
Publisher
Lenny's Podcast

04 / recommendation

" For each thing, I'd like to understand what you think a reasonable timeline is, how many sprints it's going to take, so on, so forth, right? So we can ask for that type of information so that we can start making estimates because that's going to affect budget and what we're going back to the board with and so on so forth.

“" For each thing, I'd like to understand what you think a reasonable timeline is, how many sprints it's going to take, so on, so forth, right? So we can ask for that type of information so that we can start making estimates because that's going to affect budget and what we're going back to the board with and so on so forth.”
Speaker
Annie Duke
Publisher
Lenny's Podcast

05 / preference

You want to be curious, not coercive, which means that the way that people in the meeting are talking about what their opinions are is in the mode of conveying information, not trying to convince anybody.

“You want to be curious, not coercive, which means that the way that people in the meeting are talking about what their opinions are is in the mode of conveying information, not trying to convince anybody.”
Speaker
Annie Duke
Publisher
Lenny's Podcast

06 / prediction

Then when you have people do pre-mortems, it generally doesn't actually change their plan very much or it changed their behavior. So I think that we have the feeling that if you do a pre-mortem and you think what are the ways that things might go wrong, that that's going to change your plan, but probably not unless you're specifically using it for that purpose and you say, "Okay, we're going to do this, but let's think about how we might change our plan in light of this information.

“Then when you have people do pre-mortems, it generally doesn't actually change their plan very much or it changed their behavior. So I think that we have the feeling that if you do a pre-mortem and you think what are the ways that things might go wrong, that that's going to change your plan, but probably not unless you're specifically using it for that purpose and you say, "Okay, we're going to do this, but let's think about how we might change our plan in light of this information.”
Speaker
Annie Duke
Publisher
Lenny's Podcast

07 / commitment

Well, and this is the thing that I think I actually have been able to get people to do is discover what people think before you get in a room independently of each other.

“Well, and this is the thing that I think I actually have been able to get people to do is discover what people think before you get in a room independently of each other.”
Speaker
Annie Duke
Publisher
Lenny's Podcast

08 / evaluation

Yeah, I mean, we do this, for example, at First Round, we have a structured forum for evaluating a company in terms of whether you should invest in it because there are facts and then there are the way that you model those facts in.

“Yeah, I mean, we do this, for example, at First Round, we have a structured forum for evaluating a company in terms of whether you should invest in it because there are facts and then there are the way that you model those facts in.”
Speaker
Annie Duke
Publisher
Lenny's Podcast

09 / preference

You have to have the balance between them feeling heard, which I think is incredibly important that your children feel heard, and following through on what you know or believe is right.

“You have to have the balance between them feeling heard, which I think is incredibly important that your children feel heard, and following through on what you know or believe is right.”
Speaker
Annie Duke
Publisher
Lenny's Podcast

10 / evaluation

The feedback loop is as long as you choose it to be. And if I take that back to some of the things that I heard early on when I was talking to people, what I would say is that I think that there is a certain amount of psychological safety in allowing the feedback loop to stay long because really of two main factors.

“The feedback loop is as long as you choose it to be. And if I take that back to some of the things that I heard early on when I was talking to people, what I would say is that I think that there is a certain amount of psychological safety in allowing the feedback loop to stay long because really of two main factors.”
Speaker
Annie Duke
Publisher
Lenny's Podcast

11 / recommendation

Probably not. And I think that we need to get that perspective of time so that we can get out of the moment because in the moment it just feels so important and the feelings are so big.

“Probably not. And I think that we need to get that perspective of time so that we can get out of the moment because in the moment it just feels so important and the feelings are so big.”
Speaker
Annie Duke
Publisher
Lenny's Podcast

12 / evaluation

It's hard for me to describe properly how humble this man was, and it seems so impossible because his influence was so huge and his intellect was so huge and his insight was so change-making in the areas that he worked.

“It's hard for me to describe properly how humble this man was, and it seems so impossible because his influence was so huge and his intellect was so huge and his insight was so change-making in the areas that he worked.”
Speaker
Annie Duke
Publisher
Lenny's Podcast

14 / observation

The way that I would think about it is if I took some really successful trading options in 1982, and I put them into the environment that exists now, where the market is super, super tight, I wouldn’t actually expect them to be able to win. And the reason is that when the markets are really wide, your ability to be leaving basis points on the table — you just have so much more room for not getting it just right, because the difference between you and the people that you’re trading against is so wide.

“The way that I would think about it is if I took some really successful trading options in 1982, and I put them into the environment that exists now, where the market is super, super tight, I wouldn’t actually expect them to be able to win. And the reason is that when the markets are really wide, your ability to be leaving basis points on the table — you just have so much more room for not getting it just right, because the difference between you and the people that you’re trading against is so wide.”
Speaker
Annie Duke
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

15 / belief

In general, I would say that I can probably read men better. And my understanding is that that’s also true of men, that the data is that men can read men better than they can read women, and women can also read men better than they can read women.

“In general, I would say that I can probably read men better. And my understanding is that that’s also true of men, that the data is that men can read men better than they can read women, and women can also read men better than they can read women.”
Speaker
Annie Duke
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

16 / evaluation

I think that there’s certainly some significant portion of them that that’s true of, that they could be doing great things out in the world. But I also think that there are quirks about people who are attracted to poker because, given how brilliant they are and particularly how brilliant they are at game theory and expressing that and instantiating that in a real-time, high-stakes decision-making problem, I think that most of the people who are playing poker could be making more money doing something else, could be creating more productivity for the world as you said, moving out of this zero-sum situation into something that’s more win-win.

“I think that there’s certainly some significant portion of them that that’s true of, that they could be doing great things out in the world. But I also think that there are quirks about people who are attracted to poker because, given how brilliant they are and particularly how brilliant they are at game theory and expressing that and instantiating that in a real-time, high-stakes decision-making problem, I think that most of the people who are playing poker could be making more money doing something else, could be creating more productivity for the world as you said, moving out of this zero-sum situation into something that’s more win-win.”
Speaker
Annie Duke
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

19 / evaluation

I think about poker as a pretty universal game because certainly when I was playing, you would be sitting at a table and there were people — Chinese, Vietnamese, Korean, German, French, Italian, Spanish, Russian.

“I think about poker as a pretty universal game because certainly when I was playing, you would be sitting at a table and there were people — Chinese, Vietnamese, Korean, German, French, Italian, Spanish, Russian.”
Speaker
Annie Duke
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

20 / evaluation

just yes or no in that situation probably makes sense for survival. But I would love to hear your thoughts on that because I’m kind of hard pressed to think of a lot of examples in which thinking probabilistically isn’t helpful.

“just yes or no in that situation probably makes sense for survival. But I would love to hear your thoughts on that because I’m kind of hard pressed to think of a lot of examples in which thinking probabilistically isn’t helpful.”
Speaker
Annie Duke
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

21 / recommendation

[laughs] So I’m going to leave that with my father. That being said, I will recommend to everybody that if you haven’t read Anguished English, it’s a really hilarious book.

“[laughs] So I’m going to leave that with my father. That being said, I will recommend to everybody that if you haven’t read Anguished English, it’s a really hilarious book.”
Speaker
Annie Duke
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

22 / preference

If your goal is to find a great match, then I think that that’s actually helpful because the fact that you’re thinking that way means that you’re more likely to be talking to somebody who is compatible with somebody who thinks that way. So while it might reduce the number of people that you might match with, the number of people that might end up being long-term, the quality of the match, I think, would go up because you would be more likely to be compatible in terms of the way that you thought about the world.

“If your goal is to find a great match, then I think that that’s actually helpful because the fact that you’re thinking that way means that you’re more likely to be talking to somebody who is compatible with somebody who thinks that way. So while it might reduce the number of people that you might match with, the number of people that might end up being long-term, the quality of the match, I think, would go up because you would be more likely to be compatible in terms of the way that you thought about the world.”
Speaker
Annie Duke
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler
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