Annie Duke: evaluation

Transcript context

…Let me start with a simple question. How can we spot situations when thinking probabilistically is likely to make our decisions worse rather than better? How can we spot situations when thinking probabilistically is likely to make our decisions worse rather than better? That is such an interesting question. Honestly, I would say that those situations would only be . . . In some ways I’m not sure that this means that you’re not thinking probabilistically. It’s just what do you do with the information? But there are certain times when thinking through what the probabilities are in terms of what your reaction is — given the downside risks that you might be exposed to — wouldn’t make sense. The classic example would be the sensitivity versus specificity argument. If I’m out on the savannah as an evolving human and I hear rustling in the grass, it’s probably not great for me to think, what’s the probability that that’s a lion? Because the downside is so great. The magnitude of the downside — dying — is so great that thinking categorically in that . . . just yes or no in that situation probably makes sense for survival. But I would love to hear your thoughts on that because I’m kind of hard pressed to think of a lot of examples in which thinking probabilistically isn’t helpful. There may be cases where thinking probabilistically conflicts with the kind of authenticity. Say one of our audience members is out on a date, should he or she set up a kind of mental probability ticker? Well, you start off the date thinking, “The chance I marry this person is 2.3 percent.” And then as the evening progresses, the number might go up. It might go down. It’s hard for some people not to think that way. Yet it seems, actually, your chance just might lower if you even open up that door at all, right?…

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