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This will make you a better decision-maker | Annie Duke (author of “Thinking in Bets” and “Quit,” former pro poker player)

2 May 2024 14 published claims 2 attributable people
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Speakers in the public record

Annie DukeLenny Rachitsky

Claim mix

evaluation 5belief 3recommendation 2preference 2prediction 1commitment 1

Evidence policy

Every row below preserves an exact excerpt. Identified speakers are linked; unresolved voices are labeled and excluded from people counts.

Claim ledger

The useful parts, with receipts.

14 published records

01 / evaluation

I think Kahneman did some work way back that started him on this journey. That was basically work on hiring and it was taking it from completely unstructured Lenny, saying, "I just know a great product manager when I see one", whatever that means, to me going to Lenny and saying, "Okay, I understand that you think that you see a great product manager you know one when you see one", but can you explain to me what that means?

“I think Kahneman did some work way back that started him on this journey. That was basically work on hiring and it was taking it from completely unstructured Lenny, saying, "I just know a great product manager when I see one", whatever that means, to me going to Lenny and saying, "Okay, I understand that you think that you see a great product manager you know one when you see one", but can you explain to me what that means?”
Speaker
Annie Duke
Publisher
Lenny's Podcast

02 / belief

I remember having a lunch with him where I realized after the lunch that the whole lunch was him asking me questions about my work.

“I remember having a lunch with him where I realized after the lunch that the whole lunch was him asking me questions about my work.”
Speaker
Annie Duke
Publisher
Lenny's Podcast

05 / evaluation

Do you feel like you failed? And what that means is that by the time, there's so many biases against stopping that by the time you're actually even thinking about quitting, it's probably already past the time that you ought to have quit.

“Do you feel like you failed? And what that means is that by the time, there's so many biases against stopping that by the time you're actually even thinking about quitting, it's probably already past the time that you ought to have quit.”
Speaker
Annie Duke
Publisher
Lenny's Podcast

06 / recommendation

" For each thing, I'd like to understand what you think a reasonable timeline is, how many sprints it's going to take, so on, so forth, right? So we can ask for that type of information so that we can start making estimates because that's going to affect budget and what we're going back to the board with and so on so forth.

“" For each thing, I'd like to understand what you think a reasonable timeline is, how many sprints it's going to take, so on, so forth, right? So we can ask for that type of information so that we can start making estimates because that's going to affect budget and what we're going back to the board with and so on so forth.”
Speaker
Annie Duke
Publisher
Lenny's Podcast

07 / preference

You want to be curious, not coercive, which means that the way that people in the meeting are talking about what their opinions are is in the mode of conveying information, not trying to convince anybody.

“You want to be curious, not coercive, which means that the way that people in the meeting are talking about what their opinions are is in the mode of conveying information, not trying to convince anybody.”
Speaker
Annie Duke
Publisher
Lenny's Podcast

08 / prediction

Then when you have people do pre-mortems, it generally doesn't actually change their plan very much or it changed their behavior. So I think that we have the feeling that if you do a pre-mortem and you think what are the ways that things might go wrong, that that's going to change your plan, but probably not unless you're specifically using it for that purpose and you say, "Okay, we're going to do this, but let's think about how we might change our plan in light of this information.

“Then when you have people do pre-mortems, it generally doesn't actually change their plan very much or it changed their behavior. So I think that we have the feeling that if you do a pre-mortem and you think what are the ways that things might go wrong, that that's going to change your plan, but probably not unless you're specifically using it for that purpose and you say, "Okay, we're going to do this, but let's think about how we might change our plan in light of this information.”
Speaker
Annie Duke
Publisher
Lenny's Podcast

09 / commitment

Well, and this is the thing that I think I actually have been able to get people to do is discover what people think before you get in a room independently of each other.

“Well, and this is the thing that I think I actually have been able to get people to do is discover what people think before you get in a room independently of each other.”
Speaker
Annie Duke
Publisher
Lenny's Podcast

10 / evaluation

Yeah, I mean, we do this, for example, at First Round, we have a structured forum for evaluating a company in terms of whether you should invest in it because there are facts and then there are the way that you model those facts in.

“Yeah, I mean, we do this, for example, at First Round, we have a structured forum for evaluating a company in terms of whether you should invest in it because there are facts and then there are the way that you model those facts in.”
Speaker
Annie Duke
Publisher
Lenny's Podcast

11 / preference

You have to have the balance between them feeling heard, which I think is incredibly important that your children feel heard, and following through on what you know or believe is right.

“You have to have the balance between them feeling heard, which I think is incredibly important that your children feel heard, and following through on what you know or believe is right.”
Speaker
Annie Duke
Publisher
Lenny's Podcast

12 / evaluation

The feedback loop is as long as you choose it to be. And if I take that back to some of the things that I heard early on when I was talking to people, what I would say is that I think that there is a certain amount of psychological safety in allowing the feedback loop to stay long because really of two main factors.

“The feedback loop is as long as you choose it to be. And if I take that back to some of the things that I heard early on when I was talking to people, what I would say is that I think that there is a certain amount of psychological safety in allowing the feedback loop to stay long because really of two main factors.”
Speaker
Annie Duke
Publisher
Lenny's Podcast

13 / recommendation

Probably not. And I think that we need to get that perspective of time so that we can get out of the moment because in the moment it just feels so important and the feelings are so big.

“Probably not. And I think that we need to get that perspective of time so that we can get out of the moment because in the moment it just feels so important and the feelings are so big.”
Speaker
Annie Duke
Publisher
Lenny's Podcast

14 / evaluation

It's hard for me to describe properly how humble this man was, and it seems so impossible because his influence was so huge and his intellect was so huge and his insight was so change-making in the areas that he worked.

“It's hard for me to describe properly how humble this man was, and it seems so impossible because his influence was so huge and his intellect was so huge and his insight was so change-making in the areas that he worked.”
Speaker
Annie Duke
Publisher
Lenny's Podcast
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