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Conversations with Tyler / episode intelligence

William MacAskill on Effective Altruism, Moral Progress, and Cultural Innovation

10 Aug 2022 30 published claims 2 attributable people
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Speakers in the public record

William MacAskillTyler Cowen

Claim mix

belief 19evaluation 5uncertainty 2preference 1prediction 1commitment 1recommendation 1

Evidence policy

Every row below preserves an exact excerpt. Identified speakers are linked; unresolved voices are labeled and excluded from people counts.

Claim ledger

The useful parts, with receipts.

30 published records

01 / belief

If, however, it’s already 95 percent towards the good candidate in terms of votes, and you’re just absolutely sure that voting for the good candidate will not make a difference, then I think the main argument, and by far the main argument, is undermined because it’s already over-determined that this good thing is going to happen, and so you adding your extra weight is not making the world any better.

“If, however, it’s already 95 percent towards the good candidate in terms of votes, and you’re just absolutely sure that voting for the good candidate will not make a difference, then I think the main argument, and by far the main argument, is undermined because it’s already over-determined that this good thing is going to happen, and so you adding your extra weight is not making the world any better.”
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

03 / belief

Actually, my understanding of human beings — rather than homo economicus, which are mainly motivated by self-interest; you understand that in terms of income — at least when you’re looking at a much broader scale, I think we’re much more like homo culturalis, where people have a view of how the world should be, and they go out and try to make that vision happen.

“Actually, my understanding of human beings — rather than homo economicus, which are mainly motivated by self-interest; you understand that in terms of income — at least when you’re looking at a much broader scale, I think we’re much more like homo culturalis, where people have a view of how the world should be, and they go out and try to make that vision happen.”
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

05 / belief

From the sheer track record of how helpful these have been over the last 200 years, let’s just keep pushing on that. That’s the kind of view that I think I’m most sympathetic to in terms of the moral-progress studies worldview because I do think that’s good for the long-term future.

“From the sheer track record of how helpful these have been over the last 200 years, let’s just keep pushing on that. That’s the kind of view that I think I’m most sympathetic to in terms of the moral-progress studies worldview because I do think that’s good for the long-term future.”
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

08 / belief

If I’m putting weight on both of them, which again I think we should — I don’t think you should be super confident in any one model worldview — then that will favor, to some extent, the humans.

“If I’m putting weight on both of them, which again I think we should — I don’t think you should be super confident in any one model worldview — then that will favor, to some extent, the humans.”
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

09 / belief

I think the best guess from the Fermi paradox — that is the paradox that we don’t, in fact, see advanced intelligent life — is that, probably, we’re just alone, at least in a very, very large section of space.

“I think the best guess from the Fermi paradox — that is the paradox that we don’t, in fact, see advanced intelligent life — is that, probably, we’re just alone, at least in a very, very large section of space.”
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

10 / belief

Then, when I think about, would I have the reason that many people, I think, are drawn to having kids — to have additional meaning in their lives — it’s not something that appeals to me, like really motivates me.

“Then, when I think about, would I have the reason that many people, I think, are drawn to having kids — to have additional meaning in their lives — it’s not something that appeals to me, like really motivates me.”
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

12 / belief

Then your view would have to argue that, “Well, the future, as it is, is like close to the upper bound of value,” in order to make sense of the idea that you shouldn’t flip 50/50. I think, actually, that position would be pretty hard to defend, is my guess.

“Then your view would have to argue that, “Well, the future, as it is, is like close to the upper bound of value,” in order to make sense of the idea that you shouldn’t flip 50/50. I think, actually, that position would be pretty hard to defend, is my guess.”
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

14 / belief

If I think about making the world a better place, I think so much about so many things being downstream from culture, that we need to think about culture.

“If I think about making the world a better place, I think so much about so many things being downstream from culture, that we need to think about culture.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

15 / belief

I also admit, intuitively, I have very rapid diminishing returns to value. So, intuitively, I think that you take a galaxy, and it’s full of bliss, best possible galaxy — 50/50 for that versus all accessible galaxies are flourishing, and so on.

“I also admit, intuitively, I have very rapid diminishing returns to value. So, intuitively, I think that you take a galaxy, and it’s full of bliss, best possible galaxy — 50/50 for that versus all accessible galaxies are flourishing, and so on.”
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

20 / belief

The question of just how many people should be alive today is really driven by, how would that impact the long-term flourishing of humanity? That being said, like all things considered, I think there’s this norm, there’s this idea at the moment that it’s bad to have kids because of the carbon footprint.

“The question of just how many people should be alive today is really driven by, how would that impact the long-term flourishing of humanity? That being said, like all things considered, I think there’s this norm, there’s this idea at the moment that it’s bad to have kids because of the carbon footprint.”
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

21 / evaluation

My response to that is, man, this just seems like super brittle, low probability because it seems so implausible to me that we could get hundreds of trillions of years in technological progress and improving well-being.

“My response to that is, man, this just seems like super brittle, low probability because it seems so implausible to me that we could get hundreds of trillions of years in technological progress and improving well-being.”
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

22 / preference

I like it partly — especially given that London is pretty affluent, especially compared to many areas of Scotland — I like it as an example of what gets called the “dead hand problem” in philanthropy, where the founding of nonprofits can have a very specific mission, and that mission can become increasingly absurd over time.

“I like it partly — especially given that London is pretty affluent, especially compared to many areas of Scotland — I like it as an example of what gets called the “dead hand problem” in philanthropy, where the founding of nonprofits can have a very specific mission, and that mission can become increasingly absurd over time.”
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

23 / prediction

That’s me being a little bit more optimistic than other people that have looked into this, but the optimism is mainly drawing from just lack of — I think we know very little about the conscious lives of fish, let alone invertebrates. But yes, if you have a preference satisfaction view, then I think the world looks a lot better because beings, in general, want to keep living.

“That’s me being a little bit more optimistic than other people that have looked into this, but the optimism is mainly drawing from just lack of — I think we know very little about the conscious lives of fish, let alone invertebrates. But yes, if you have a preference satisfaction view, then I think the world looks a lot better because beings, in general, want to keep living.”
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

24 / evaluation

I’d be pretty wary of just paving over the jungle because, on the basis of our very nonrobust evaluation, we think that animal lives are, on average, negative.

“I’d be pretty wary of just paving over the jungle because, on the basis of our very nonrobust evaluation, we think that animal lives are, on average, negative.”
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

25 / evaluation

The repugnant conclusion is the idea that a world consisting of a very, very, very, very large number of beings, all with lives just barely above zero, just barely worth living — because it has more aggregate well-being, is better than 10 trillion lives of wonderful bliss.

“The repugnant conclusion is the idea that a world consisting of a very, very, very, very large number of beings, all with lives just barely above zero, just barely worth living — because it has more aggregate well-being, is better than 10 trillion lives of wonderful bliss.”
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

26 / commitment

Yes, that is my view, and it ends up looking very similar to what is known as pluralism because I end up paying attention to different sorts of moral reasons.

“Yes, that is my view, and it ends up looking very similar to what is known as pluralism because I end up paying attention to different sorts of moral reasons.”
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

29 / evaluation

Now, perhaps in my book, I argue there’s enormous amounts of value at stake when we consider the long term, so we should reduce the risk of extinction and promote good values so that we make the most of that, make the most of all value in the long term.

“Now, perhaps in my book, I argue there’s enormous amounts of value at stake when we consider the long term, so we should reduce the risk of extinction and promote good values so that we make the most of that, make the most of all value in the long term.”
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler
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